Forecast @ 16 July 02:42 ET (Semi-finals)

11m 19s runtime · $1.80

Spain are favourites to win the World Cup final against Argentina after eliminating France in the semi-final, with our results-based ratings and the betting market both pointing the same way. England are out after losing 1-2 to Argentina and now play the third-place match. Argentina's Falklands banner after the semi-final has drawn public attention but no FIFA ruling, so it does not move the forecast.

% win WC

Spain0.0%
Argentina0.0%
Czechia0.0%
Korea Republic0.0%
Mexico0.0%
South Africa0.0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina0.0%
Canada0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 58.1%Market 58.4%-0.3pp below
Our results-based ratings rate Spain clearly ahead of Argentina, and the betting market agrees within a small, statistically unremarkable gap. Spain beat France 2-0 to reach the final and carry that form into the biggest game of the tournament.
Our forecast 41.9%Market 41.6%+0.3pp above
Argentina's 1-2 semi-final win over England sends them to the final as underdogs against Spain. The Falklands banner controversy from that match has drawn media attention but FIFA has issued no ruling and the identical 2014 incident only produced a fine, so it does not change Argentina's chances.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

55%Using our results-based ratings
45%Using the betting market's final-day consensus

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain are favourites to beat Argentina in Sunday's final.

58.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our results-based ratings rate Spain clearly ahead of Argentina, and the betting market agrees within a small, statistically unremarkable gap. Spain beat France 2-0 to reach the final and carry that form into the biggest game of the tournament.

Using our results-based ratingsThe fitted results-based rating, with the semi-final results already absorbed, and no market input.

55%

Using the betting market's final-day consensusThe de-vigged betting market's read on the Spain-Argentina final, carried as a small offsetting strength world.

45%

Sources considered by the agent

7.Why is there a World Cup third-place play-off between England and France? - The Athleticnytimes.com

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
Registered a two-team-final mixture (, final_spain_argentina_mixture): this scenario 0.55 / this scenario 0.45, giving Spain 58.0% / Argentina 42.0% title probability, with England's world fully collapsed since England is mathematically eliminated (baseline title prob = 0.0). The live axis is…
- Model vs market gap at the final: Spain model 60.6% vs de-vigged market 58.4% (gap +2.23pp), Argentina model 39.4% vs market 41.6% (gap -2.23pp); both fall inside the model's own p10-p90 parameter band (Spain 52.8-68.2%), i.e. noise-adjacent, matching the prior run's finding that this gap is not str…
- Inverting each side: rationalizing the market's Spain/Argentina view via wq.implied_delta requires strength deltas of about mp0.048 (spain -0.048, argentina +0.048); this is the this scenario world used in the mixture.
- England's title world is dead: baseline champion simulation gives England exactly 0.0 post-elimination, so the previous 18.4% England world is fully collapsed, not reweighted.
- Branch audit: argentina-fifa-sanction-risk is rejected. No FIFA ruling exists as of 2026-07-16 (, , evidence-002); the identical 2014 banner incident drew only a ~£20k fine with zero sporting sanction; even an illustrative -0.02 strength-drag test moves Argentina only ~1.16pp, barely…
- Registered (final_spain_argentina_mixture): this scenario 0.55 / this scenario 0.45 -> Spain 58.0%, Argentina 42.0%. mixture_spread vs_floor is ~1.30-1.31 for both finalists (width_pp ~15.6-15.7pp vs floor_width_pp 12.0pp), showing the mixture carries real but modest extra width above pure pa…