Forecasting the winner of the World Cup

Archive forecast 16 July 02:42 ET

Spain are favourites to beat Argentina in Sunday's final.

58.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our results-based ratings rate Spain clearly ahead of Argentina, and the betting market agrees within a small, statistically unremarkable gap. Spain beat France 2-0 to reach the final and carry that form into the biggest game of the tournament.

Using our results-based ratingsThe fitted results-based rating, with the semi-final results already absorbed, and no market input.

55%

Using the betting market's final-day consensusThe de-vigged betting market's read on the Spain-Argentina final, carried as a small offsetting strength world.

45%

1 in 1Spain are world champions

Spain are favourites to beat Argentina in Sunday's final.

58.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Using our results-based ratingsThe fitted results-based rating, with the semi-final results already absorbed, and no market input.

55%

Using the betting market's final-day consensusThe de-vigged betting market's read on the Spain-Argentina final, carried as a small offsetting strength world.

45%

Forecasting the winner of the World Cup

Archive forecast 16 July 02:42 ET

Spain are favourites to beat Argentina in Sunday's final.

58.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Using our results-based ratingsThe fitted results-based rating, with the semi-final results already absorbed, and no market input.

55%

Using the betting market's final-day consensusThe de-vigged betting market's read on the Spain-Argentina final, carried as a small offsetting strength world.

45%

1 in 1Spain are world champions