Forecast @ 13 July 06:23 ET (Quarter-finals)

22m 50s runtime · $3.88

France remain clear favourites after reaching the semifinal against Spain, with bettors far more confident in them than our own results-based ratings alone. England now rank second, still needing to beat Argentina then Spain or France. We weight the market's persistent skepticism on Spain and confidence in France heavily, since that gap has held for days with no new results to close it. The Tchouameni and Argentina cramp worries have both resolved fine and no longer move the numbers.

% win WC

France0.0%
England0.0%
Spain0.0%
Argentina0.0%
Czechia0.0%
Korea Republic0.0%
Mexico0.0%
South Africa0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 20.9%Market 21.3%-0.4pp below
Our results-based ratings actually favour Spain over France, but the betting market has been consistently more cautious on Spain through the tournament, and we give that market view the larger share of the weight today. That persistent gap, not any single event, is why Spain's published number sits below our internal read.
Our forecast 40.7%Market 39.3%+1.4pp above
Our own results-based ratings see France and Spain as close to even, but the betting market has consistently rated France much higher, and that gap has held for days without new results to explain it. We weight the market's view more heavily here, which is why France sit well above what our ratings alone would say. Tchouameni's groin doubt has resolved, he is expected to start, so it is not weighing on the number.
Our forecast 16.9%Market 17.4%-0.5pp below
Cramp concerns for Romero and Paredes were reported but the latest word from Argentina's camp says both are fit and expected to feature, not structurally injured, so that scare is no longer pulling the number down. Argentina's number reflects a competitive but tougher route than England's or France's.
Our forecast 21.5%Market 22.0%-0.4pp below
England's number has stayed steady, reflecting a genuine toss-up semifinal against Argentina followed by a tough final. There is no fresh news moving England's case either way; the number is a straight read of the path and the market.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

30%Using our results-based ratings
70%Using the betting market consensus

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

France remain the favourites to win it all, backed heavily by bettors ahead of facing Spain.

40.7% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our own results-based ratings see France and Spain as close to even, but the betting market has consistently rated France much higher, and that gap has held for days without new results to explain it. We weight the market's view more heavily here, which is why France sit well above what our ratings alone would say. Tchouameni's groin doubt has resolved, he is expected to start, so it is not weighing on the number.

Using the betting market consensusThe odds with bookmaker margin removed, carrying the persistent France-Spain gap our ratings do not explain

70%

Using our results-based ratingsA pure fit to results and strength so far, blind to what bettors think

30%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
Registered a two-base mixture (this scenario 0.30 / this scenario 0.70) as artifact , giving England 21.6% title (mean), France 41.3%, Spain 20.6%, Argentina 16.5%. Both candidate injury branches (Tchouameni/Kone for France, Romero/Paredes for Argentina) were priced with wq.impact and, while a…
- Market gaps beyond noise: France model 23.6% vs market 39.3% (-15.7pp), Spain model 35.9% vs market 21.4% (+14.5pp), Argentina model 22.5% vs market 17.4% (+5.1pp), England model 18.0% vs market 21.9% (-3.96pp); bookmaker/Polymarket legs agree within ~0.4pp so no cross-leg signal.
- title_uncertainty() confirms the France/Spain gap is structural: model's own p10-p90 bands (France 20.2-29.6%, Spain 29.3-40.8%) never reach the market price on either team, so this cannot be dismissed as parameter noise; market's likely edge is squad depth/knockout pedigree, model's likely edge is…
- france-midfield-defense-doubt: wq.impact of a -0.05 France strength delta (a real Tchouameni/Kone absence) moves France -2.59pp, well above the 0.4pp floor, confirming the branch would matter if real; evidence-002 confirms both are expected to start, so priced-zero given current evidence, collapsed…
- argentina-fatigue-risk: wq.impact of a -0.05 Argentina strength delta moves Argentina -2.03pp, above floor; evidence-002 (TyC Sports) confirms Romero/Paredes suffered cramps not structural injuries and are expected fit, Messi played full 120 minutes; priced-zero, collapsed to a watch item pending of…
- England path: SF reach 100%, advance past Argentina 46.3%, then final vs Spain 56.4% or France 43.6% conditional on reaching it; unconditional title 18.0% (model) up to 21.6% (mixture mean).
2Step 2
run_python was exhausted (12/12 scripts, including the run that actually called wq.scenario_mixture) before the registration call could complete, so I could not re-persist a fresh artifact this node; only the direct quick-look tools (run_scenario, perturbation_impact, market_gaps, market…
- run_python's 12-script cap was reached one call before wq.scenario_mixture's registration write completed, so no new mixture artifact was persisted this node; the fully-built call (this scenario 0.42 / this scenario 0.58, with factor_audit, branch_audit and world_metadata populated exactly per the brief)…
- Cross-checked via run_scenario and wq.impact (direct tools, uncapped) that the this scenario deltas are unchanged from : France strength +0.2255 (sd 0.05) alone moves France +15.2pp (noise floor 0.215pp), and the full four-leg bundle reproduces this scenario's title mix (France ~48-56%, Engla…
- Both candidate branches remain priced-zero and correctly collapsed into this scenario per fresh evidence-002: argentina-fatigue-risk (, Romero/Paredes cramps not structural, expected fit) and france-midfield-defense-doubt (/, Tchouameni back to full training and expected to sta…
- No team strength was moved and no new branch was opened beyond the adjudicated this scenario/this scenario pair; the re-registration failure is purely an artifact-plumbing gap caused by the script cap, not a numeric or judgement disagreement with 's content.
3Step 3
Registered (england_focus_semis_20260714), a clean two-base mixture: this scenario (0.30, pure fitted strength, no perturbations) and this scenario (0.70, de-vigged market consensus widened around the structural France/Spain gap). Today's market_gaps read is essentially unchanged from…
- Registered artifact (england_focus_semis_20260714): two worlds, this scenario weight 0.30 and this scenario weight 0.70.
- this scenario justification: pure fitted international-results strength with no adjustment; retained as the results-based reference given no reason to distrust the fit itself.
- this scenario justification: de-vigged market consensus (bookmaker+Polymarket agree within ~0.1-0.4pp legs_disagree across all four teams), carrying the structural France/Spain gap as width via DeltaDistribution; weight held at 0.70 (unchanged from ) since today's market_gaps read is essentia…
- Mixture leaders (all nonzero teams): france 41.3%, england 21.6%, spain 20.6%, argentina 16.5%; all other 48-4=44 teams are exactly 0.0, so team_stories coverage is complete with just these four (no czechia/korea-republic/mexico/south-africa presence in this focused board's output).
- mixture_spread: england band 15.5-28.2% (width 12.7pp, vs_floor 1.51x, overlapping yesterday's 14.1-19.9%); france band 21.9-55.3% (width 33.4pp, vs_floor 3.95x, widest since it carries the full structural gap); spain vs_floor 2.59x; argentina vs_floor 1.24x (near floor, reflecting a smaller, less c…