Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France remain the favourites to win it all, backed heavily by bettors ahead of facing Spain.
40.7% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our own results-based ratings see France and Spain as close to even, but the betting market has consistently rated France much higher, and that gap has held for days without new results to explain it. We weight the market's view more heavily here, which is why France sit well above what our ratings alone would say. Tchouameni's groin doubt has resolved, he is expected to start, so it is not weighing on the number.
France remain the favourites to win it all, backed heavily by bettors ahead of facing Spain.
40.7% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our own results-based ratings see France and Spain as close to even, but the betting market has consistently rated France much higher, and that gap has held for days without new results to explain it. We weight the market's view more heavily here, which is why France sit well above what our ratings alone would say. Tchouameni's groin doubt has resolved, he is expected to start, so it is not weighing on the number.
