Forecast @ 12 July 06:22 ET (Quarter-finals)
21m 50s runtime · $3.62
England's semifinal against Argentina awaits after beating Norway, with France and Spain meeting the day before. Our forecast has France ahead, Spain second, England third and Argentina fourth. The live dispute is how much to trust the market's strong France-over-Spain favouritism against our own ratings, which prefer Spain on strength of results and Elo form; we carry that as width rather than picking a side.
- France0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- England0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- Czechia0.0%
- Korea Republic0.0%
- Mexico0.0%
- South Africa0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 23.2%Market 21.3%+2.0pp above
Spain's rating is built on high-importance wins including a 7-0 at the 2022 World Cup and qualifiers, plus a rising Elo trend that now sits above France's. The market disagrees, favouring France comfortably, so our number reflects a genuine ratings-versus-market split rather than a settled read.
Our forecast 37.4%Market 38.5%-1.1pp below
Betting markets strongly back France over Spain (41.7% to 29.0% in head-to-head odds) but our own ratings, built on high-importance results and a rising Elo curve, actually prefer Spain. We lean toward the market view given its demonstrated pricing power, while keeping real uncertainty around that gap rather than resolving it outright.
Our forecast 19.1%Market 18.6%+0.5pp above
Argentina's semifinal opponent is England in Atlanta. Their rating draws on both our own ratings and the betting market, which see them a shade behind England but firmly alive after seeing off Switzerland, reduced to ten men by a red card.
Our forecast 20.3%Market 21.6%-1.3pp below
England are slightly favoured over Argentina in head-to-head market odds (37.8% to 31.0%) and our number blends that market view with our own ratings. Whichever of France or Spain wins Tuesday's semifinal awaits in the final; a weaker Spain in that final would suit England more than a rampant France, and that leverage already flows through our bracket simulation.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 42%Using our results-based ratings
- 58%Using the betting market
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
Favourites to win the tournament ahead of Tuesday's semifinal against Spain in Dallas.
37.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Betting markets strongly back France over Spain (41.7% to 29.0% in head-to-head odds) but our own ratings, built on high-importance results and a rising Elo curve, actually prefer Spain. We lean toward the market view given its demonstrated pricing power, while keeping real uncertainty around that gap rather than resolving it outright.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.Lionel Messi and Argentina march into World Cup semi-finals but what about ‘mistaken identity’ red card? - The Athleticcitednytimes.com
- 2.France vs. Spain Confirmed For Semifinals: Here's What To Know | FOX Sportscitedfoxsports.com
- 3.Another big Bellingham night puts England into World Cup semifinals - ESPNcitedespn.com
- 4.Argentina vs Switzerland: World Cup quarterfinal – Messi, prediction, news | World Cup 2026 News | Al Jazeeracitedaljazeera.com
- 5.Should VAR have ruled out Jude Bellingham’s England goal after ball appears to hit cable? | The Independentcitedthe-independent.com
- 6.FIFA responds after England's controversial World Cup quarterfinal goal vs Norway sparks uproar | Football Newscitedhindustantimes.com
Internal forecast workings
1Combining the competing worlds
Registered a two-world mixture (, england_focus_20260712_semis: this scenario 0.35 / this scenario 0.65) for the France-Spain and England-Argentina semifinals. Both candidate branches proposed for today (england-var-controversy-legitimacy, argentina-fatigue-fitness) were priced and rejected: t…
2Step 2
Adjudicated all three critique branches computationally and re-registered a corrected two-world mixture (, england_focus_20260712_adjudicated, weights this scenario 0.42 / this scenario 0.58, noise floor 0.842pp). Both France-Spain gap branches (france-semifinal-consensus-edge, spain-structura…
- France-Spain gap (model 24.0% vs market 38.5% France; model 34.6-35.0% vs market 14.8-21.3% Spain) is confirmed structural at the match level, not just outright noise: direct H2H match_probs gives Spain 41.2% vs France 29.4%, opposite of the market's reported 41.7%/29.0% France-favored read, and tit…
- No market-invisible edge was found for either side: Dallas is a neutral tournament venue (voiding a France host-advantage story), and the Tchouameni depth rumor remains stale/uncorroborated per 's prior collapse; both France-favoring and Spain-favoring branches are therefore merged into mar…
- England path leverage is material (france-up costs england -2.885pp vs floor 0.275pp; spain-down benefits england +2.85pp) but is already fully endogenous to both bases' full bracket simulations (team_path_tree shows England's final-opponent split at 43.35% france / 56.65% spain), so no standalone p…
- Weights rebalanced to this scenario 0.42 / this scenario 0.58 (from 's 0.35/0.65): model's Spain/France ratings are grounded in high-importance results and a favorable Elo trend (Spain 2178 in 2024 vs France 2055), not a modeling artifact, warranting somewhat less deference to the market than qu…
- Final marginals: France 38.0%, Spain 23.0%, England 20.0%, Argentina 18.9% (, floor 0.842pp).
