Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Favourites to win the tournament ahead of Tuesday's semifinal against Spain in Dallas.
37.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Betting markets strongly back France over Spain (41.7% to 29.0% in head-to-head odds) but our own ratings, built on high-importance results and a rising Elo curve, actually prefer Spain. We lean toward the market view given its demonstrated pricing power, while keeping real uncertainty around that gap rather than resolving it outright.
Favourites to win the tournament ahead of Tuesday's semifinal against Spain in Dallas.
37.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Betting markets strongly back France over Spain (41.7% to 29.0% in head-to-head odds) but our own ratings, built on high-importance results and a rising Elo curve, actually prefer Spain. We lean toward the market view given its demonstrated pricing power, while keeping real uncertainty around that gap rather than resolving it outright.
