Forecast @ 10 July 06:26 ET (Quarter-finals)
25m 26s runtime · $3.98
France leads the semifinal picture at 29.4%, with Spain, Argentina and England behind. The market's post-Morocco jump for France is only partly credited since most of it looks like backward-looking reaction rather than fresh edge, though a genuine depth concern around Tchouameni not being fit to start against Argentina still costs France a few points. England carries a small held-back doubt over Declan Rice's hamstring and neural issue, priced as a bounded downside rather than a full injury collapse.
- France0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- England0.0%
- Belgium0.0%
- Norway0.0%
- Switzerland0.0%
- Czechia0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 3.2%Market 2.1%+1.1pp above
Our own ratings see less in Switzerland than the market blend does, a persistent and uncontested gap that is carried through as a modest market-implied discount rather than fresh news.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 30%Using our ratings from international results
- 35%Using the betting market after removing bookmaker margin, France trimmed
- 20%Market view plus France semifinal midfield depth risk
- 15%Market view plus held England Rice fitness doubt
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
France still rate as the most likely champions, at 29.4%, ahead of the market by a shrinking but real margin.
29.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our ratings and the trimmed market view mostly agree, but a small forward-looking remainder of France's post-Morocco market jump stays priced in. A separate concern is that Aurelien Tchouameni still is not fit to start, and Kone/Rabiot covering him against Argentina's possession game is a real if moderate risk.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.Spain vs Belgium: World Cup quarterfinal – prediction, start time, lineups | World Cup 2026 News | Al Jazeeracitedaljazeera.com
- 2.England have new concerns over Declan Rice and Marc Guehi ahead of World Cup quarter-final - The Athleticcitednytimes.com
- 3.FIFA makes major VAR change for remainder of World Cup 2026 after teams raise furious refereeing complaints | Football News - The Times of Indiacitedtimesofindia.indiatimes.com
- 4.Norwegian Coach Clears Air On Health Scare For Erling Haaland & Team Ahead Of World Cup Quarter Final - EssentiallySportscitedessentiallysports.com
- 5.Aurelien Tchouameni left on the bench for France vs Morocco quarterfinal — Marcus Thuram angle on a ruthless selection call - El-Balad.comcitedel-balad.com
- 6.World Cup 2026: England defender Marc Guehi fitness worry with hamstring injury - BBC Sportbbc.com
- 7.Why isn't Aurélien Tchouaméni playing for France in the quarterfinals match against Morocco? - AS USAen.as.com
- 8.FIFA make key VAR change for rest of the World Cup after furious complaintsmirror.co.uk
- 9.Ismael Saibari Injury Update: Is Saibari Playing Today vs. France?prizepicks.com
- 10.Declan Rice and Marc Guehi injury update: Hamstring and sickness could be a blow for England vs Norway - Bolavip USbolavip.com
- 11.Why isn't Aurelien Tchouameni playing today for France vs Morocco at the 2026 World Cup? - Bolavip USbolavip.com
- 12.Norway reportedly hit by sickness aheadsports.yahoo.com
- 13.World Cup 2026: Thomas Tuchel defends full-back selection after Reece James injury - BBC Sportbbc.com
- 14.Man United-linked Aurélien Tchouaméni agrees new Real Madrid deal - sources - ESPNespn.com
- 15.France beats Morocco behind Mbappe to reach FIFA World Cup semifinalseu.usatoday.com
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
Audited the two reference views (champion simulation vs de-vigged market) on the four confirmed semifinalists, priced all three named branches against the noise floor, retired two prior worlds whose triggering fixtures have since resolved, added one forward-looking replacement world, and registered…
2Step 2
Registered corrected mixture (artifact , 4 worlds: this scenario 0.30 / this scenario 0.35 / france_tchouameni_depth 0.20 / england_rice_residual 0.15), adjudicating the three critique tails. (1) France market premium: market_movement shows France's bookmaker outright jumped 6.35pp (0.3222 to…
- France market premium (/critique branch france-market-premium-unearned): ~67% of the 9.49pp market-model gap is a backward-looking post-Morocco-QF-result jump already absorbed by the model's fixed baseline (bookmaker outright 0.3222 to 0.3857 in one snapshot); inversion trimmed from +0.0961…
- England Rice residual (/branch england-rice-residual-unpriced): the critique's proposed -0.05 to -0.06 range is far above the floor (-2.67pp to -2.90pp vs ~0.48-0.79pp) so a clean collapse understated it, but no fresh SF-specific confirmation exists beyond the resolved Norway-QF doubt, so it…
- France Tchouameni depth (/branch france-tchouameni-depth-undersized): widened from mean -0.025 to mean -0.035 (sd raised 0.015 to 0.02), reflecting Argentina's tougher possession/set-piece profile per the critique, but not fully adopting the ledger's -0.06 point since Kone/Rabiot already del…
- Switzerland and Argentina market gaps were uncontested by the critique and carried forward essentially unchanged (switzerland -0.0844, argentina left unperturbed, gap within noise).
- Mixture_spread shows England vs_floor 1.05 (right at the parameter-only floor, no missing believed branch) and France vs_floor 1.13 (real, now better-justified disagreement, not padding).
