Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France still rate as the most likely champions, at 29.4%, ahead of the market by a shrinking but real margin.
29.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our ratings and the trimmed market view mostly agree, but a small forward-looking remainder of France's post-Morocco market jump stays priced in. A separate concern is that Aurelien Tchouameni still is not fit to start, and Kone/Rabiot covering him against Argentina's possession game is a real if moderate risk.
France still rate as the most likely champions, at 29.4%, ahead of the market by a shrinking but real margin.
29.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our ratings and the trimmed market view mostly agree, but a small forward-looking remainder of France's post-Morocco market jump stays priced in. A separate concern is that Aurelien Tchouameni still is not fit to start, and Kone/Rabiot covering him against Argentina's possession game is a real if moderate risk.
