Forecast @ 9 July 06:34 ET (Round of 16)

1Step 1

Audited both reference views (model baseline vs de-vigged market via market_gaps) and all four prior worlds from agent-20260708-100057 for the England focus. Noise floor is 0.465pp. France carries the largest, clearly structural gap (-13.14pp, model 19.0% vs market blend 28.6%, outside its own p10-p…

• ·Q1 prior worlds: this scenario and this scenario both carry with strong support (france gap -13.14pp vs 0.465pp floor); france_qf_execution carries because Tchouameni's doubt is still unresolved pre-kickoff; england_rb_structural carries because James remains an unresolved doubt and Quansah's suspension…
• ·Q2 gap teams: france (-13.14pp) is priced via this scenario plus a QF execution layer, not disputed away, because it exceeds the model's own p10-p90 band; spain (+8.85pp) and belgium (+4.26pp) are carried at existing this scenario magnitudes with no fresh evidence to escalate; england's -2.88pp gap sits…
• ·Q3 England: england_rb_structural is still live (James doubtful, Quansah suspended), material at -1.245pp (2.7x floor) with spillover to Norway/Spain/Morocco/Belgium. England's bracket is path_difficulty 1.002 (neutral) with a favourable QF/SF slate but a final-round opponent distribution dominated…
• ·Q4 France-Morocco: the QF's win/loss branching is already resolved inside baseline simulation and needs no separate bracket world; the Tchouameni fitness doubt is a distinct, still-unresolved incremental strength update (-1.66pp on France) correctly kept as its own execution-risk layer, not double c…
• ·Candidate axes for the mixture node: keep this scenario and this scenario as references, keep france_qf_execution and england_rb_structural as the two live football-first branches (both clear the noise floor with current evidence); do not add new axes for the Saibari absence (likely sub-floor, belongs to…

2Combining the competing worlds

Registered (mixture_day29_england_focus), carrying forward all four prior worlds from agent-20260708-100057 with weights unchanged (this scenario 0.20, this scenario 0.35, france_qf_execution 0.25, england_rb_structural 0.20). England title probability: mean 13.83% (13.95% at spread-check), p…

• ·Prior worlds all carried at unchanged weights (this scenario 0.20, this scenario 0.35, france_qf_execution 0.25, england_rb_structural 0.20); none collapsed, none escalated.
• ·France market gap -13.14pp (model 19.0% vs blend 28.6%) remains structural, outside its own title_uncertainty p10-p90 band, re-confirmed via today's market_gaps pull.
• ·Tchouameni start doubt () priced material: -1.81pp on France (2.0x the 0.89pp noise floor), folded into france_qf_execution as an incremental execution-risk layer distinct from the already-baseline QF bracket outcome.
• ·England RB structural drag (, James doubt + Quansah suspended) re-priced at -1.14pp on England (1.28x floor), carried unescalated in england_rb_structural.
• ·Saibari confirmed out (): -0.41pp on England, -0.08pp on Morocco, both below the 0.89pp floor; confirmed-but-immaterial like-for-like Rahimi swap, priced-zero, no new branch.

3Re-pricing after challenge

run_python's 8-script budget was exhausted after completing all three branch computations, so I could not execute a final wq.scenario_mixture call to register a new artifact this node (every subsequent run_python call returned python_budget_exhausted). All three critic tails were priced via run_scen…

• ·br-france-saibari-asymmetry (PRICED): combined France Tchouameni (-0.03,sd .015) + Morocco Saibari (-0.02,sd .01) world gives France -1.68pp net title delta vs baseline (was -1.81pp Tchouameni-only in ); Saibari's own-title effect on Morocco is -0.08pp and its spillover to France is +0.04…
• ·br-france-market-premium-unearned (PRICED, TRIMMED): no forward-facing edge (Deschamps pattern, path effect, squad depth) survives computation beyond what the fitted model already owns - France's WC knockout record (11W-2D since 2018) sits in the model's highest importance-weight tier (4.0, confirme…
• ·br-england-norway-path-covariance (COLLAPSED): raising Norway's QF advance probability 0.40->0.55 lowers England's unconditional title probability by -3.56pp with Norway gaining +2.76pp and no compensating uplift found in sf or final round movers (England sf reach -14.9pp, final reach -7.88pp). team…
• ·Noise floor for these single-team perturbation tests is consistently 0.465-0.89pp depending on n_sims/seed pairing used; all reported deltas above the England RB structural (-1.245pp, 2.7x floor) and France Tchouameni+Saibari combined (-1.68pp, ~2x floor) clear it, while the Saibari-only and spillov…
• ·IMPORTANT PROCESS NOTE: run_python's 8-script budget was exhausted mid-node after completing the three branch computations via run_scenario/perturbation_impact fallback tools; wq.scenario_mixture (which requires run_python) could not be called this node, so no new mixture artifact was registered. Th…

4Step 4

Re-registered the England mixture as (four worlds: this scenario, this scenario, france_qf_execution, england_rb_structural), resolving all three critic tails with fresh computation. France's title share moves from 33.0% () to 29.2% and England from 13.8% to 14.7%, driven by trimmi…

• ·br-france-saibari-asymmetry (priced): netting Saibari (mean -0.02, sd 0.01, Morocco) against Tchouameni (mean -0.03, sd 0.015, France) softens France's QF-execution penalty from -1.81pp (Tchouameni-only) to roughly -1.18 to -1.68pp depending on seed; isolated own-effects (Morocco -0.08pp, France spi…
• ·br-france-market-premium-unearned (priced): no forward-facing edge survives beyond de-vigged consensus - France's WC knockout record is already in the model's highest-weight evidence tier (4.0), Elo has been flat-to-declining since 2021 (2114->2062), and path_difficulty (1.269) argues against a brac…
• ·br-england-norway-path-covariance (collapsed): directly tested by raising Norway's QF advance probability from 0.40 to 0.55 - England's unconditional title probability falls -3.54pp, Norway rises +2.22pp, and both Spain (+0.85pp) and France (+0.23pp) move POSITIVE, not negative, meaning the hypothes…
• ·England RB structural read () carried unchanged at DeltaDist(mean=-0.025, sd=0.015), still 2.7x the 0.465pp single-team floor per 's audit.
• ·Cross-checked mixture_spread: England band widens modestly from to 8.7pp (vs_floor 1.41x, floor width 6.1pp), overlapping yesterday's published 9.0-18.3pp band, so the revision is a coherent tightening/rebalancing rather than a regime change.