Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France lead the field into a tense Morocco quarterfinal.
28.1% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The betting market prices France highest of anyone, but our international-results ratings see a team whose recent form has drifted down and a bracket that is tougher than average, so we only partly credit that market premium. Aurelien Tchouameni's unresolved fitness doubt against Morocco adds a further small execution risk.
France lead the field into a tense Morocco quarterfinal.
28.1% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The betting market prices France highest of anyone, but our international-results ratings see a team whose recent form has drifted down and a bracket that is tougher than average, so we only partly credit that market premium. Aurelien Tchouameni's unresolved fitness doubt against Morocco adds a further small execution risk.
