Forecast @ 8 July 06:24 ET (Round of 16)

24m 1s runtime · $2.62

France lead at 28.4% after repricing confirmed QF absences. Spain rise to 22.0%, England firm at 14.0% facing Norway in the quarterfinal. Our four-world mixture blends international-results ratings with the betting market after removing margin, adjusted for Tchouameni out for France and the corrected Belgium depth accounting.

% win WC

France0.0%
Spain0.0%
Argentina0.0%
England0.0%
Norway0.0%
Belgium0.0%
Morocco0.0%
Switzerland0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 3.1%Market 2.3%+0.8pp above
Switzerland qualified via penalties against Colombia. They face Argentina in the quarterfinal, priced well above them in both the model and market camps. Their title odds reflect the slim path through a difficult draw.
Our forecast 4.2%Market 2.5%+1.7pp above
Onana's confirmed ACL ends his tournament. The correction removes a match-specific rate shift that duplicated the tournament-long strength discount already pricing his absence. De Bruyne and Doku fitness is a positive offset for Belgium's remaining campaign.
Our forecast 22.0%Market 19.1%+2.9pp above
Our international-results ratings put Spain first in the model camp; the market camp discounts them for path difficulty. The correction removes a redundant match-rate perturbation that double-counted Onana's absence alongside his tournament-long strength discount, freeing back roughly 0.3pp to Spain.
Our forecast 28.4%Market 32.7%-4.3pp below
The betting market prices France with a large structural premium, reflecting their squad quality. We grant this in two market-weighted camps. The france_qf_execution camp also prices Tchouameni's confirmed adductor tear and its knock-on suspension risk for his replacement Kone, partially offset by Morocco's Saibari also being doubtful.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

20%Using international-results ratings
35%De-vigged market with France structural premium and corrected QF absences
25%Assuming Tchouameni misses QF vs Morocco
20%Assuming James and Quansah absent, Henderson rotation-only

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

France lead the tournament at 28.4%, revised down after a Tchouameni injury repricing.

28.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

The betting market prices France with a large structural premium, reflecting their squad quality. We grant this in two market-weighted camps. The france_qf_execution camp also prices Tchouameni's confirmed adductor tear and its knock-on suspension risk for his replacement Kone, partially offset by Morocco's Saibari also being doubtful.

De-vigged market with France structural premium and corrected QF absencesBookmaker consensus after removing margin, corrected for the Belgium double-count and anchored on the France squad quality gap above our ratings band.

35%

Assuming Tchouameni misses QF vs MoroccoLayers confirmed Tchouameni absence and Kone suspension jeopardy onto the market anchor; partially offset by Saibari's hamstring doubt for Morocco.

25%

Assuming James and Quansah absent, Henderson rotation-onlyPrices England's confirmed right-back depth loss separately from Henderson's minor wrist injury, correcting the prior over-penalization.

20%

Using international-results ratingsFitted from historical international results; does not see club squad value or short-term availability beyond what match results reveal.

20%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
Mixture registered as (artifact). Four worlds: this scenario 0.20, this scenario 0.35, france_qf_execution 0.25, england_rb_structural 0.20. Published: France 29.5%, Spain 22.3%, Argentina 18.4%, England 13.6%, Norway 5.5%, Belgium 3.9%, Morocco 3.8%, Switzerland 3.0%. England width 8.5pp is…
- STEP 1 - REFERENCE AUDIT: France model 18.8% vs market 32.7% (-14.5pp gap). Model uncertainty band p10=13.7%, p90=22.5%: the gap is structural, above the p90. The -11.1pp baseline drop vs yesterday is explained by the Morocco QF bracket already conditioned in the persisted bracket (baseline). The re…
- Spain model 27.2% vs market 19.2% (+8.1pp). Model p10=21.1%, p90=32.5%: the gap is above-market but within the model's own uncertainty band. Spain's +8.1pp surplus can be a genuine fitted-strength lead (record 5/5 clean sheets, 34-match unbeaten run, strong Spain strength=1.73 vs field) OR a path ar…
- England model 13.8% vs market 15.7% (-1.88pp gap). Within model band (p10=10.2%, p90=18.8%). Small gap; market slightly more bullish. England market world adds +0.039 strength (minor uplift). The depth crisis (Henderson, James, Quansah) is a confirmed negative that works against this; the england_rb…
- Belgium +4.24pp model surplus: model 6.7% vs market 2.5%. Market has already digested Onana ACL (confirmed, ). The match-rate perturbation (Spain +2.31pp, Belgium -1.12pp on match-98) is material and confirms the market discount mechanistically. Belgium gap is not a model edge -- it is the m…
- Switzerland +2.46pp model surplus: model 4.7% vs market 2.3%. Within model band; likely draw luck and path difficulty already priced by market.
2Step 2
Corrected mixture registered as (mixture_day28_england_focus_corrected). Three critic tails repriced with computation; all three critiques were validated. France 28.8% (was 29.5%), Spain 22.0% (was 22.3%), England 14.1% (was 13.6%), Belgium 4.1% (was 3.9%). Noise floor 0.392pp. Four-worl…
- TAIL 1 - France net availability (tail-france-tchouameni-net-negative): REPRICED. Tchouameni QF rate hit (match-97, home_goals_delta=-0.08) confirmed at -1.39pp France above floor 0.392pp. Led-0006 'more significant than initially thought' justified adding a tournament-role drag DeltaDist(-0.035,0.0…
- TAIL 2 - England depth penalty (tail-england-henderson-over-penalized): REPRICED. Delta reduced from DeltaDist(-0.040,0.025) to DeltaDist(-0.025,0.015). Mechanism split: James = structural hamstring (no return date, genuine RB absence across tournament); Quansah = QF-only suspension; Henderson = wri…
- TAIL 3 - Belgium Onana double-count (tail-belgium-onana-double-count): DOUBLE-COUNT CONFIRMED and corrected. Decomposition: strength delta -0.211 alone = Belgium -4.53pp, Spain +4.89pp. Match-rate alone (home+0.1, away-0.12) = Belgium -1.09pp, Spain +2.07pp. Both well above floor 0.392pp and acting…
- AXIS NOTE: No new worlds added. The three tails were priced as corrections within the existing world structure. Candidate axes considered: (a) splitting france_qf_execution into Tchouameni-absent vs present sub-worlds -- collapsed because the match-rate + role drag already expresses the QF branch wi…
- MIXTURE SPREAD: France 26.4pp width = 2.99x parameter floor; England 8.8pp = 1.13x floor; Belgium 6.5pp = 1.15x floor; Spain 16.5pp = 1.57x floor; Argentina 10.4pp = 1.06x floor. All core teams at or above floor.