Forecasting the winner of the World Cup

Archive forecast 8 July 06:24 ET

France lead the tournament at 28.4%, revised down after a Tchouameni injury repricing.

28.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

The betting market prices France with a large structural premium, reflecting their squad quality. We grant this in two market-weighted camps. The france_qf_execution camp also prices Tchouameni's confirmed adductor tear and its knock-on suspension risk for his replacement Kone, partially offset by Morocco's Saibari also being doubtful.

De-vigged market with France structural premium and corrected QF absencesBookmaker consensus after removing margin, corrected for the Belgium double-count and anchored on the France squad quality gap above our ratings band.

35%

Assuming Tchouameni misses QF vs MoroccoLayers confirmed Tchouameni absence and Kone suspension jeopardy onto the market anchor; partially offset by Saibari's hamstring doubt for Morocco.

25%

Assuming James and Quansah absent, Henderson rotation-onlyPrices England's confirmed right-back depth loss separately from Henderson's minor wrist injury, correcting the prior over-penalization.

20%

Using international-results ratingsFitted from historical international results; does not see club squad value or short-term availability beyond what match results reveal.

20%

1 in 1France are world champions

France lead the tournament at 28.4%, revised down after a Tchouameni injury repricing.

28.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

35%

Assuming Tchouameni misses QF vs MoroccoLayers confirmed Tchouameni absence and Kone suspension jeopardy onto the market anchor; partially offset by Saibari's hamstring doubt for Morocco.

25%

Assuming James and Quansah absent, Henderson rotation-onlyPrices England's confirmed right-back depth loss separately from Henderson's minor wrist injury, correcting the prior over-penalization.

20%

Using international-results ratingsFitted from historical international results; does not see club squad value or short-term availability beyond what match results reveal.

20%

Forecasting the winner of the World Cup

Archive forecast 8 July 06:24 ET

France lead the tournament at 28.4%, revised down after a Tchouameni injury repricing.

28.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

35%

Assuming Tchouameni misses QF vs MoroccoLayers confirmed Tchouameni absence and Kone suspension jeopardy onto the market anchor; partially offset by Saibari's hamstring doubt for Morocco.

25%

Assuming James and Quansah absent, Henderson rotation-onlyPrices England's confirmed right-back depth loss separately from Henderson's minor wrist injury, correcting the prior over-penalization.

20%

Using international-results ratingsFitted from historical international results; does not see club squad value or short-term availability beyond what match results reveal.

20%

1 in 1France are world champions