Forecast @ 7 July 06:36 ET (Round of 16)
35m 25s runtime · $3.95
France lead at 29.5% backed by a EUR1300M squad premium the betting market prices clearly above the international-results rating. England reach the quarterfinals fourth at 12.6%, pulled below market by confirmed right-back losses including Reece James and Jordan Henderson. Spain sit second at 21.2% on the top international-results rating; Argentina third at 13.8%.
- France0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- England0.0%
- Norway0.0%
- Belgium0.0%
- Colombia0.0%
- Morocco0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 21.2%Market 18.9%+2.3pp above
Spain's fitted strength from international results is the highest in the tournament after winning Euro 2024 and going five games unbeaten here. The betting market prices them at 19.0%, a discount to the model that reflects their harder bracket path compared to France. The mixture lands at 21.2% as a blend of model confidence and market caution on the path.
Our forecast 29.5%Market 33.4%-3.9pp below
France's international-results rating alone produces a much lower probability than the de-vigged betting market assigns them. The gap is driven by a EUR1300M squad-quality premium that results data cannot capture. In the QF execution camp, Tchouameni's confirmed absence for the Morocco match and Saibari's injury are priced as independent effects, with the net impact a small France advantage on that fixture.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 40%Using international-results ratings
- 60%De-vigged market with France structural premium and QF match execution
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
France lead the forecast, powered by a club-quality premium the betting market prices clearly above our international-results rating
29.5% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France's international-results rating alone produces a much lower probability than the de-vigged betting market assigns them. The gap is driven by a EUR1300M squad-quality premium that results data cannot capture. In the QF execution camp, Tchouameni's confirmed absence for the Morocco match and Saibari's injury are priced as independent effects, with the net impact a small France advantage on that fixture.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.World Cup injury tracker: Jordan Henderson freak arm break, Reece James recovery and more - Yahoo Sportscitedsports.yahoo.com
- 2.FIFA World Cup 2026: Belgium coach says Amadou Onana has ‘serious injury’ - The Hinducitedthehindu.com
- 3.World Cup Quarterfinal Injury Tracker: Latest Player Availability, Injuries and Return Timelines | Sports Injury Centralcitedsicscore.com
- 4.World Cup scores, updates for July 6: USMNT eliminated, Spain winscitedeu.usatoday.com
- 5.Why isn't Nico Williams starting for Spain against Portugal at the 2026 World Cup? - World Soccer Talkcitedworldsoccertalk.com
- 6.Why are Yeremy Pino & Nico Williams benched in Portugal vs Spain FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16 clash?citedkhelnow.com
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
France has a structural -14.9pp gap (model 18.5% vs market 33.4%) driven by a durable EUR1300M squad-quality premium the results model cannot see; the -7.6pp model baseline drop is entirely a bracket/path update (Morocco QF now confirmed fixture) not a strength refit, and France's market price sits…
- FRANCE GAP TABLE: model 18.5% vs market 33.4%, gap -14.9pp. Implied strength delta +0.214 units (noise floor 0.93pp; material). Title uncertainty p10-p90: 15.4%-22.5% - market price is ABOVE p90, confirming structural gap. Mechanism: EUR1300M squad quality (Mbappe, Dembele, Tchouameni) not captured…
- FRANCE BASELINE DROP: The -7.6pp France model drop since the prior run is a pure bracket/path effect - Portugal's elimination reshapes the draw in Spain's favour and France's Morocco QF was previously a partial probability now locked in. France fitted strength is unchanged at 1.6168. This is NOT a n…
- SPAIN GAP TABLE: model 28.0% vs market 18.9%, gap +9.1pp. Implied strength delta -0.142 units (noise floor 0.93pp; material). Title uncertainty p10-p90: 21.3%-35.4% - market price at 19.0% is BELOW p10, confirming structural model edge. Mechanism: Spain is model rank #1 (strength 1.7382 vs France 1.
- SPAIN MODEL SURGE: The +12.7pp Spain model surge is partly a bracket effect (Portugal eliminated, Spain's R16 roadblock gone; Onana injury favours Spain QF), partly genuine path-forward probability increase. Spain-Portugal 1-0 is in the baseline (, proposed_delta 0.0) so there is no double-c…
- IMPLIED DELTAS WITH NOISE FLOORS: France model-to-market requires +0.214 strength units (>> 0.93pp floor; material). Spain market-to-model requires -0.142 strength units (>> 0.93pp floor; material). Both gaps are structural, not simulation noise.
2Step 2
Six branches adjudicated; four worlds registered in candidate_mixture_20260707. England baseline 13.2%, mixture 12.5% after England RB drag world. France structural gap confirmed at -14.95pp (model 18.5% vs market 33.4%), above p90 parameter band of 22.5%: market-right structural stance maintained.
- BRANCH AUDIT: branch-argentina-bracket COLLAPSED. Bracket benefit already in baseline by construction; sim fixes path once R16 results flow. delta=0. No perturbation needed.
- BRANCH AUDIT: branch-england-rb-crisis PRICED. MatchRatePerturbation match 99 (QF vs Norway Jul 11): England -0.96pp, Norway +0.31pp (both above floor 0.182pp). James/Spence/Quansah confirmed out (); Henderson tournament-ending wrist (). Lives in england_rb_drag world (weight 0.15).
- BRANCH AUDIT: branch-france-tchouameni-doubt PRICED. MatchRatePerturbation match 97 (QF vs Morocco Jul 9, Tchouameni out): France -1.39pp standalone (above floor). Combined with Saibari out, net France = -0.07pp (below floor), so branches partially offset. Priced in france_qf_execution world (weight…
- BRANCH AUDIT: branch-morocco-saibari-doubt MERGED INTO BASE. Saibari individually France +1.25pp, Morocco -0.43pp (above floor). But combined with Tchouameni, net France -0.07pp (below floor). Market ~62% France QF win probability already reflects Morocco attacking uncertainty. Merged into market_an…
- BRANCH AUDIT: branch-onana-belgium PRICED. MatchRatePerturbation match 98 (QF vs Spain Jul 10): Spain +2.33pp, Belgium -0.94pp (both well above floor 0.182pp). Coach Garcia confirmed 'serious injury, I have the feeling he is out.' Market prices last updated 10:04 UTC Jul 7, same time as news broke -…
3Step 3
Branch audit closed across all six exact branch_ids. Tchouameni's status upgrade from "major doubt" to confirmed out () validates but does not change the existing MatchRatePerturbation match 97 in france_qf_execution -- already sized it at confirmed-miss magnitude (France -1.39pp s…
- branch-argentina-bracket: COLLAPSED. Bracket benefit in baseline by construction; delta=0pp, no perturbation warranted. Led-0004.
- branch-england-rb-crisis: PRICED. MatchRatePerturbation match 99: England -0.96pp, Norway +0.31pp (both above floor 0.182pp). James/Spence/Quansah () plus Henderson wrist fracture (). World: england_rb_drag weight 0.15.
- branch-france-tchouameni-doubt: PRICED. Led-0010 confirms groin tear = confirmed out (status upgrade from 'major doubt'). MatchRatePerturbation match 97: France -1.39pp standalone (above floor 0.182pp). Quant-002 already sized at confirmed-miss magnitude -- no delta change. World: france_qf_executio…
- branch-morocco-saibari-doubt: MERGED_INTO_BASE (market_anchored_v2). Saibari individually France +1.25pp above floor, but combined with Tchouameni confirmed out the net France delta is -0.07pp (below floor 0.182pp). Offsetting pair merged; market ~62% France QF win prob already absorbs Morocco attac…
- branch-onana-belgium: PRICED. MatchRatePerturbation match 98: Spain +2.33pp, Belgium -0.94pp (both well above floor 0.182pp). Coach confirmed 'serious injury, I have the feeling he is out' (); market update lag at 10:04 UTC Jul 7. World: market_anchored_v2 weight 0.45.
4Step 4
Three critic tails repriced with real simulation (50k sims, noise floor 0.182pp). Corrected mixture registered as artifact . Key findings: (1) France double-count rejected -- Tchouameni marginal ON TOP of market-anchor world is -1.41pp (above floor), confirming the structural delta prices…
- Q1 FRANCE DOUBLE-COUNT: Tchouameni match perturbation marginal on market-anchor world = -1.41pp (above 0.182pp floor). VERDICT: KEEP france_qf_execution world. The market's 33.4% structural anchor prices France squad QUALITY premium (EUR1300M, Mbappe/Dembele depth); the -0.08/+0.10 match-97 perturba…
- Q2 ENGLAND RB: Match-rate scenario (match 99 only) yields +0.75pp England (directionally inconsistent, slot-assignment noise). Structural bilateral scenario (Eng -0.06, Nor +0.05) yields -3.60pp -- over-sized as permanent bilateral shift. Moderated tournament-long DeltaDist(-0.045, 0.025) yields -1.
- Q3 COLLAPSED/MERGED CORRECTLY: Williams expected to return ( probable) -- branch-spain-wingers-qf-availability correctly COLLAPSED; net +0.41pp near floor with probable return. Saibari standalone France +1.81pp (above floor) but combined with Tchouameni net +0.04/-0.02 on match-97; branch-mo…
- MIXTURE SPREAD: France 28.0pp width (3.30x parameter floor), Spain 19.5pp (1.74x floor), England 8.2pp (1.24x floor). All top contenders comfortably above floor. Noise floor 0.802pp at mixture level.
- AXIS NOTE: Four surviving worlds reflect two genuine axes -- (1) model vs market trust on France/Spain quality gap; (2) England structural RB depth. Saibari/Tchouameni combined into net QF perturbation within france_qf_execution (same underlying match, same axis). Spain wingers collapsed (Williams r…
