Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France lead the forecast, powered by a club-quality premium the betting market prices clearly above our international-results rating
29.5% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France's international-results rating alone produces a much lower probability than the de-vigged betting market assigns them. The gap is driven by a EUR1300M squad-quality premium that results data cannot capture. In the QF execution camp, Tchouameni's confirmed absence for the Morocco match and Saibari's injury are priced as independent effects, with the net impact a small France advantage on that fixture.
France lead the forecast, powered by a club-quality premium the betting market prices clearly above our international-results rating
29.5% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France's international-results rating alone produces a much lower probability than the de-vigged betting market assigns them. The gap is driven by a EUR1300M squad-quality premium that results data cannot capture. In the QF execution camp, Tchouameni's confirmed absence for the Morocco match and Saibari's injury are priced as independent effects, with the net impact a small France advantage on that fixture.
