Forecast @ 6 July 06:39 ET (Round of 16)
39m 2s runtime · $4.36
France lead at 26.4% as the tournament reaches the quarterfinals; England move up to 11.3% after beating Mexico but face Norway with Henderson, Quansah and Reece James all absent or doubtful. Ratings from international results and the betting market after removing bookmaker margin both point to France. A downside tail covers Morocco counter-attack risk, confirmed by the QF draw.
- France0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- England0.0%
- Portugal0.0%
- Norway0.0%
- Colombia0.0%
- Morocco0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 26.4%Market 34.3%-7.9pp below
France are rated as clear favourites by both international-results ratings and the betting market (34.3% de-vigged). A downside tail weighted at 25% discounts for Morocco counter-attack risk confirmed by the QF draw and execution uncertainty beyond squad value. The blend lands at 26.4%, roughly 8pp below market because the downside tail is a live branch the market may not fully price.
Our forecast 7.7%Market 4.7%+2.9pp above
Norway eliminated Brazil with Haaland scoring twice, earning a QF against England. The pricing uses a match-specific rate adjustment for the Norway versus England QF rather than a tournament-long strength shift, since the strength update from the Brazil result was weak. Market (4.7%) is below our 7.7%, a gap earned by the QF match-specific pricing.
Our forecast 11.3%Market 14.1%-2.8pp below
England advanced past Mexico 3-2 in extra time, but Jordan Henderson suffered a wrist injury post-match and Jarell Quansah is suspended after a red card. Reece James remains a hamstring doubt. The QF injury drag was upgraded to reflect the stacking of absences; England sit below the market (14.0%) because the pricing specifically accounts for these confirmed absences that the market may not fully reflect.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 25%Using international-results ratings
- 50%De-vigged market with upgraded England drag and Norway QF-specific pricing
- 25%France execution risk tail: Morocco QF confirmed
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
France lead the field at 26.4% with ratings and market both pointing to their squad depth.
26.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France are rated as clear favourites by both international-results ratings and the betting market (34.3% de-vigged). A downside tail weighted at 25% discounts for Morocco counter-attack risk confirmed by the QF draw and execution uncertainty beyond squad value. The blend lands at 26.4%, roughly 8pp below market because the downside tail is a live branch the market may not fully price.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.Haaland’s heroic double stuns Brazil and sends Norway into World Cup quarter-finals | World Cup 2026 | The Guardiancitedtheguardian.com
- 2.Mexico vs England: Three Lions overcome red card drama to reach World Cup quarter-final - latest - The Mirrorcitedmirror.co.uk
- 3.World Cup 2026: England's Jordan Henderson injures wrist in celebrations - BBC Sportcitedbbc.com
- 4.Which teams are in the World Cup quarterfinals, and what’s the schedule? | World Cup 2026 News | Al Jazeeracitedaljazeera.com
- 5.Haaland, Norway condemn Brazil to earliest World Cup exit since 1990 - ESPNespn.com
- 6.Mexico 2-3 England: World Cup 2026 last 16 – as it happened | The Guardiantheguardian.com
- 7.Portugal vs Spain, World Cup last 16 mega-preview - The Athleticnytimes.com
- 8.England survive red card to end Mexico's World Cup dream - The Athleticnytimes.com
- 9.Mexico vs England LIVE: World Cup result and fan reaction | The Standardstandard.co.uk
- 10.Portugal vs Spain: World Cup 2026 Prediction | Squawkasquawka.com
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
Three branches adjudicated: england-injury-drag PRICED as a QF MatchRatePerturbation (England -1.69pp, Norway +1.22pp, floor 0.75pp), both clearing the floor; norway-underpriced-qf PRICED with a 1.59pp model-vs-market gap above floor; portugal-spain-qf-reshaping COLLAPSED because the simulator alrea…
- england-injury-drag: PRICED as MatchRatePerturbation(match=99, home_goals_delta=+0.10, away_goals_delta=-0.15). Match 99 is Norway (home, W91) vs England (away, W92) on July 11 Miami. England title delta = -1.69pp, Norway delta = +1.22pp, both clearing the 0.75pp noise floor. The correct vehicle is…
- norway-underpriced-qf: PRICED. Model title probability 6.32% vs market consensus 4.73% = gap of +1.59pp above the 0.75pp noise floor. The market implied delta is -0.065 strength units below the model. If the market is right, accepting it would shift Norway by -1.74pp (material). The gap is real: Nor…
- portugal-spain-qf-reshaping: COLLAPSED. The match is not yet played (July 6, 19:00 GMT) and the simulator ALREADY integrates both Spain-wins and Portugal-wins outcomes in every sim run. Spain (strength 1.732, rank 1) is favoured over Portugal (strength 1.568, rank 4), and France's SF path already we…
- Noise floor for all pricing runs: 0.754 pp (50k sims, seed=42). All material findings are confirmed above this floor by multiple sim calls.
- Priced items table: (Henderson wrist) = England -1.69pp material (QF match-rate, expiry 2026-07-11); (Quansah suspension) = included in match-rate pricing, not independently separable; (Norway beat Brazil) = already in baseline, no extra strength delta; (Haaland 7…
2Step 2
France gap is structurally confirmed at -13.89pp (model 20.4% vs market 34.3%), well outside the model's own p90 (23.95%); the market-implied strength delta is +0.193, virtually identical to the +0.18 used in the previous market_anchored world, so that perturbation remains correctly calibrated. The…
- FRANCE: Gap -13.89pp (model 20.4% vs market 34.3%). Implied strength delta +0.193, matching previous +0.18/0.05 perturbation. Market p90 from parameter uncertainty is 23.95% - market sits 10.3pp above model p90, confirming structural gap. MARKET RIGHT: EUR1300M squad, Mbappe+Griezmann+Camavinga club…
- PREVIOUS RUN AUDIT (agent-20260705-100056): this scenario 0.25 / market_anchored 0.55 / france_downside 0.20 remains structurally valid. The market_anchored France perturbation (+0.18/0.05) is re-confirmed at +0.193 implied. The france_downside mechanism strengthened (Morocco QF confirmed vs probable).
- ENGLAND RESIDUAL GAP: +0.25pp (model 14.27% vs market 14.02%). This is SUB-FLOOR (noise floor 0.530pp). England and market are in agreement. The +6.7pp move from the Mexico win is fully absorbed. Henderson wrist injury () and Quansah suspension () are QF-specific and price as MatchRa…
- SPAIN: Gap +5.15pp (model 18.1% vs market 13.0%), implied delta -0.089. MODEL RIGHT (partially): Spain is the #1 rated team (strength 1.732) with strong qualifying record. The market discount reflects Spain vs Portugal today () - market prices Spain winning <100%, so conditional elimination…
- BELGIUM: Gap +3.07pp (model 4.5% vs market 1.5%), implied delta -0.196. MARKET RIGHT: Aging squad (De Bruyne 33+), underperformed Euro2024 ceiling expectations, KO-round depth concerns. Previous run applied -0.15/0.04; this remains the correct direction and magnitude. Carry forward.
3Step 3
norway-underpriced-qf: PRICED at +1.87pp (floor 0.754pp, clears by 2.5x). A strength posterior from the Brazil win is separately justified because Haaland's 7 in-tournament goals represent a real-time form signal not captured by the pre-tournament weighted model; update_from_result gives posterior_m…
- norway-underpriced-qf: PRICED. Strength posterior from Brazil R16 win: posterior_mean_delta=+0.0287 (sd=0.124, prior_sd=0.126). DeltaDistribution StrengthPerturbation for Norway yields +1.87pp title delta, floor 0.754pp, clearing by 2.5x. Justified separately from bracket effect because Haaland's 7…
- portugal-spain-qf-reshaping: COLLAPSED (confirming ). Conditional magnitude for France is material: -1.05pp if Spain wins, +2.08pp if Portugal wins, both clearing the 0.754pp floor individually. However, these are NOT separable branch values -- they are the probabilistic content of the base…
- Noise floor (50k sims, seed=42): 0.754pp. All material deltas confirmed against this floor.
- Priced items: (Norway beat Brazil, played result) -- not re-priced per brief; (Haaland 7 goals) -- supports the posterior update; (Portugal vs Spain fixture) -- collapsed; (bracket structure for France semi) -- captured in conditional delta analysis, resolved as b…
4Combining the competing worlds
Mixture artifact registered. Published probabilities: France 27.33%, Spain 15.94%, Argentina 15.82%, England 11.88%, Norway 8.11%, Portugal 7.46%. Weights this scenario 0.25 / market_anchored 0.55 / france_downside 0.20 carried from prior run per audit. All material market gaps re…
- ARTIFACT: registered. Weights: this scenario 0.25, market_anchored 0.55, france_downside 0.20. Noise floor 0.328pp.
- PRIOR WORLD AUDIT: Three-world structure (agent-20260705-100056) carried unchanged. confirms no fundamental rebuild; france_downside mechanism upgraded from probable to confirmed (, Morocco QF confirmed). Marginal weight increase 0.20->0.22 supportable but not justified by mechanis…
- FRANCE GAP RECONCILED: -13.49pp gap (model 20.8% vs market 34.3%). Mechanism: EUR1300M club-quality premium invisible to international-results model. Reconciled via market_anchored world France +0.18/0.05 DeltaDist (confirmed at +0.193 implied by ). France published 27.33% vs prior 26.4%; v…
- england-injury-drag PRICED: MatchRatePerturbation(match=99, home+0.10, away-0.15). England -1.69pp, Norway +1.22pp, both above 0.75pp floor (). Applied in market_anchored and france_downside worlds. England published 11.88% (prior 7.6% -- rise reflects QF position, not injury; injury drag e…
- norway-underpriced-qf PRICED: +1.87pp DeltaDist posterior from Haaland 7-goal form (, posterior_mean_delta=+0.0287, sd=0.124). Model also +1.52pp above market consensus. Norway StrengthPerturbation DeltaDist(0.029, 0.12) folded into market_anchored and france_downside worlds. Norway publish…
5Step 5
Critic tails repriced and registered, superseding . Three tails adjudicated: (1) france-club-premium-unearned: France downside delta(-0.10/0.04) gives -5.27pp (clears 0.754pp floor); strong reversal delta(-0.18/0.05) gives -9.06pp bracketing critic's -7.78pp stress test; respo…
- TAIL PRICING TABLE -- all three tails priced vs 0.754pp floor (50k sims, seed=42).
- france-club-premium-unearned: France StrengthPert delta(-0.10/0.04) -> France -5.27pp [CLEARS FLOOR]; strong reversal delta(-0.18/0.05) -> France -9.06pp (brackets critic -7.78pp stress test). Action: france_downside weight 0.20->0.25; market_anchored shaded 0.55->0.50. Morocco QF confirmed (…
- england-injury-worse-than-priced: Upgraded MatchRatePert (home+0.12, away-0.20). England -1.90pp, Norway +1.17pp, both above floor. Full worst-case (home+0.15, away-0.25) gives England -2.58pp, Norway +1.62pp but Reece James is doubt not confirmed out; intermediate sizing is most defensible. Upgrade…
- norway-haaland-match-specific: Critic correct. Posterior sd barely moved (0.126->0.124 after 7 goals). DeltaDist(0.029,0.12) StrengthPert Norway title impact of +1.85pp arose almost entirely from prior uncertainty spread, not from the mean update (+0.029 alone gives <0.3pp). Replaced with QF-specifi…
- MIXTURE COMPARISON (old->new): France 27.33%->27.11% (-0.22pp); England 11.88%->11.19% (-0.69pp); Norway 8.11%->7.48% (-0.63pp); Spain 15.94%->16.34% (+0.40pp).
