Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France lead the field at 26.4% with ratings and market both pointing to their squad depth.
26.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France are rated as clear favourites by both international-results ratings and the betting market (34.3% de-vigged). A downside tail weighted at 25% discounts for Morocco counter-attack risk confirmed by the QF draw and execution uncertainty beyond squad value. The blend lands at 26.4%, roughly 8pp below market because the downside tail is a live branch the market may not fully price.
France lead the field at 26.4% with ratings and market both pointing to their squad depth.
26.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France are rated as clear favourites by both international-results ratings and the betting market (34.3% de-vigged). A downside tail weighted at 25% discounts for Morocco counter-attack risk confirmed by the QF draw and execution uncertainty beyond squad value. The blend lands at 26.4%, roughly 8pp below market because the downside tail is a live branch the market may not fully price.
