Forecast @ 5 July 06:36 ET (Round of 16)

1Step 1

branch-england-altitude-discount collapses below floor (-0.336pp vs 0.544pp floor): the Azteca altitude is a one-match venue effect on a single fixture; it cannot be treated as a tournament-long strength cut, and its title probability impact on England is sub-floor noise. branch-norway-upset also co…

• ·branch-england-altitude-discount: BELOW FLOOR. MatchRatePerturbation(match=92, home_goals_delta=+0.07, away_goals_delta=-0.05) gives England -0.336pp vs noise floor 0.544pp (50k sims, seed 42). Mechanism is real (Tuchel confirmed acclimatisation impact, /) but the title effect of a o…
• ·branch-norway-upset: BELOW FLOOR. The conditional effect of Norway winning R16 (p=1.0) is +1.444pp for England (above 0.544pp floor), confirming the path change is real and large. However: (a) the baseline already prices Norway at 34.7% QF advance probability and Brazil at 65.3%, so this conditional…
• ·France structural gap re-audit: Model 19.68% vs de-vigged market 35.32%, gap -15.64pp (updated from prior -16.38pp). Implied log-goal-rate delta to reach market: +0.222 units. Model parameter p90 band is 22.78% -- market sits 12.5pp above the model's own 90th percentile. Gap is structural and confir…
• ·Continuity: Thuram+Tchouameni R16-only discount (-0.88pp in prior run) has EXPIRED -- France have now advanced past R16. Their QF and beyond pricing should not carry the R16-scoped absence adjustment. The France premium delta should be re-evaluated for QF+ without that component in the next mixture…
• ·England path context: Conditional on winning title, England faces Mexico in R16 (locked), then approximately 60% Brazil / 40% Norway in QF (baseline), then Argentina/Colombia/Switzerland/Egypt in SF. A Norway QF opponent is softer than Brazil, but that path diversity is already in the baseline 6.99%…

2Step 2

Market-anchored audit complete. Four structural model-vs-market gaps identified: France (market right, -15.5pp structural, club quality premium), Belgium (market right, aging squad ceiling), Mexico and USA (market right, host/co-host structural premiums). Two gaps within parameter noise: Spain and C…

• ·GAP TABLE - France: model 19.8% vs market 35.3%, gap -15.5pp STRUCTURAL (above model p90 22.8%); implied delta +0.22. Market right: EUR1300M squad, Mbappe/Dembele/Saliba club-player quality not visible in international results; confirmed injuries (Thuram, Tchouameni) already priced in by market. App…
• ·GAP TABLE - Spain: model 17.9% vs market 12.8%, gap +5.1pp WITHIN MODEL BAND (p10-p90: 11.4-22.3%). No structural stance warranted; applied small -0.05/0.02 trim for residual Williams depth uncertainty only.
• ·GAP TABLE - Brazil: model 11.7% vs market 6.9%, gap +4.7pp BORDERLINE STRUCTURAL (market at model p10 7.3%). Paqueta confirmed absent R16 (managed, not crisis); market may be pricing broader Paqueta-if-Brazil-advances risk. Applied DeltaDist(-0.12, 0.03) carried forward from prior run.
• ·GAP TABLE - Belgium: model 4.2% vs market 1.4%, gap +2.8pp STRUCTURAL (market below model p10 2.3%). Market right: aging squad tournament-ceiling discount (De Bruyne/Lukaku era ending) that results-based model overrates. Implied delta -0.19; applied DeltaDist(-0.15, 0.04).
• ·GAP TABLE - Colombia: model 5.4% vs market 3.0%, gap +2.4pp WITHIN MODEL BAND (p10-p90: 2.8-6.9%). No structural stance; gap is parameter noise.

3Combining the competing worlds

Registered mixture artifact (final_mixture_england_focus_20260705_v2): this scenario 25% / market_anchored 75%, England 6.2%, France 30.9%. All three required branch_ids adjudicated: altitude collapses (-0.336pp vs 0.544pp floor, stamped from ), Norway-upset collapses (+0.282pp Eng…

• ·REGISTERED ARTIFACT: (final_mixture_england_focus_20260705_v2). Two worlds: this scenario 25%, market_anchored 75%. Noise floor 0.292pp.
• ·BRANCH AUDIT - branch-england-altitude-discount: COLLAPSED. Delta -0.336pp vs floor 0.544pp (, 50k sims, seed 42). One-match venue effect at R16 Azteca; not a tournament-long strength change. Altitude absorbed into Mexico host premium (DeltaDist+0.12/0.04) in market_anchored. Stamped from q…
• ·BRANCH AUDIT - branch-norway-upset: COLLAPSED. Paqueta marginal (confirmed-out vs prior doubt): DeltaDist(-0.04,0.02) on Brazil gives England +0.282pp vs floor 0.544pp (50k sims, seed 42, this run). Conditional path (Norway wins R16): +1.444pp at p=1.0 but baseline already prices Norway 34.7% QF adv…
• ·BRANCH AUDIT - branch-france-morocco-gap: MERGED INTO MARKET_ANCHORED. Morocco model 4.86% vs market 2.77%, gap +2.09pp. Gap is bracket-path compression: Morocco faces France (35.3%) in QF. Market rationally discounts Morocco title path. France premium DeltaDist(+0.18,0.05) in market_anchored alread…
• ·FRANCE RECONCILIATION: France earns weighted market stance. Gap -15.64pp structural (market 35.32% vs model 19.68%), well outside model p90 band 22.78%. Mechanism: EUR1300M squad, Mbappe/Dembele/Saliba club quality not visible in international results. DeltaDist(+0.18,0.05) applied in market_anchore…

4Step 4

Three pre-mortem challenges resolved with computation. Mixture rebuilt as (3 worlds: this scenario 25%, market_anchored 55%, france_downside 20%). England mixture mean: 7.12% (up from 6.23% in ). France mixture mean: 26.95% (down from 30.9% due to symmetric downside tail). Noise…

• ·BRANCH tail-france-structural-downside: PRICED as france_downside world (weight 0.20). wq.impact DeltaDist(-0.12,0.04), 50k sims seed 42: France -6.512pp (MATERIAL above 0.544pp floor), England +0.384pp (sub-floor). Squad-quality case () supports market_anchored upside (0.55 weight), but Mo…
• ·BRANCH tail-market-consensus-host-bias: COLLAPSED. wq.impact confirms Mexico +0.12 tournament-wide: Mexico +1.454pp (MATERIAL) but England -0.986pp (MATERIAL) because England faces Mexico in locked R16. A tournament-long StrengthPerturbation is the wrong vehicle for a single-match altitude venue eff…
• ·CHALLENGE 2 (England compositional compression): England model 7.17% vs market 7.21% (gap -0.05pp, sub-floor 0.544pp). Model and market genuinely agree on England. The 6.23% in was an artifact of (a) Mexico +0.12 tournament StrengthPerturbation penalizing England -0.986pp in market_ancho…
• ·MIXTURE SPREAD: England vs_floor = 1.25 (width 5.7pp vs parameter floor 4.5pp; earned width above model noise). France vs_floor = 2.94 (width 26.1pp vs floor 8.9pp; large structural uncertainty from France upside/downside worlds).
• ·AXIS NOTE: Three axes considered -- (1) model vs market base: retained as standard reference pair; (2) France structural downside tail: survives as separate world (France -6.5pp impact is material, Morocco 34% QF path is real); (3) altitude/host-bias asymmetry: collapsed to nothing after symmetric f…

5Step 5

Both candidate branches closed below floor; worlds and weights carried forward unchanged into (registered). Branch-england-altitude-discount: computed -0.336pp title delta vs 0.544pp noise floor; the Azteca altitude is a single-match venue disadvantage at R16 only…

• ·branch-england-altitude-discount: COLLAPSED BELOW FLOOR. MatchRatePerturbation(match=92): England title delta -0.336pp vs noise floor 0.544pp (50k sims, seed 42). The Azteca altitude effect is a one-match venue disadvantage at R16 only; all QF/SF/Final matches are at other venues. Treating…
• ·branch-norway-upset: COLLAPSED BELOW FLOOR. Marginal increment from Paqueta confirmed-out vs prior doubt (DeltaDist(-0.04,0.02)): England +0.282pp vs 0.544pp floor - below floor. Conditional path effect (Norway wins R16, p=1.0): England +1.444pp is above floor but already fully priced in baseline wh…
• ·Final mixture () registered: this scenario 25% / market_anchored 55% / france_downside 20%. Worlds and weights unchanged from .
• ·England spread: mean 7.66%, p10 5.0%, p90 10.7%, width 5.7pp, vs_floor 1.25 (earned; overlaps yesterday band 4.9-11.4pp). Compositionally derived, not hand-set.
• ·France spread: mean 26.6%, p10 14.4%, p90 40.5%, width 26.1pp, vs_floor 2.94 (structural uncertainty from upside/downside worlds confirmed).