Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France lead the field as the tournament's highest-rated side heading into a QF against Morocco.
26.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France are rated top by the de-vigged betting market, with a squad valued above EUR1300M. The mixture prices both an upside world where that club quality is decisive and a downside tail where Mbappe-dependency and Morocco pace and set-pieces pull France back. The narrow win over Paraguay, settled by a 70th-minute penalty, supports keeping that downside tail active.
France lead the field as the tournament's highest-rated side heading into a QF against Morocco.
26.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France are rated top by the de-vigged betting market, with a squad valued above EUR1300M. The mixture prices both an upside world where that club quality is decisive and a downside tail where Mbappe-dependency and Morocco pace and set-pieces pull France back. The narrow win over Paraguay, settled by a 70th-minute penalty, supports keeping that downside tail active.
