Forecast @ 2 July 12:00 ET (Round of 32)
24m 48s runtime · $2.88
France lead the field at 24.6% on ratings and squad quality; Argentina second at 16.9%; England at 8.8% facing the altitude challenge at Mexico City. Spain and Brazil carry confirmed injury discounts; the prior spain_recovery world is collapsed. Three worlds span model skepticism, market consensus with injuries priced, and England's Azteca disadvantage.
- France0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- England0.0%
- Brazil0.0%
- Portugal0.0%
- Colombia0.0%
- Belgium0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 8.5%Market 6.8%+1.7pp above
Paqueta suffered a confirmed left-thigh muscle injury in the Round of 32 with no return timeline. This forces a midfield reshuffle against Norway. A strength discount in the market-based worlds brings Brazil well below their pure-model 12.3%.
Our forecast 10.8%Market 9.9%+0.9pp above
Williams (groin) and Pino (shoulder) are confirmed unavailable, removing Spain's primary wide-play threat. The prior spain_recovery scenario from the previous run is collapsed: fitness was not restored before R16. A strength discount is applied in both market-based worlds, bringing Spain down from the pure-model 14.8%.
Our forecast 24.6%Market 33.7%-9.1pp below
France won all three group games including 3-0 over Sweden (Mbappe at 6 WC goals), giving 9/9 points and a 10-2 goal difference. Their EUR 1300M squad ranks first globally, earning a partial structural premium above pure ratings. The premium was reduced after critic review: only the squad-quality edge survives, cutting the mixture from 29.1% to 24.6%. The mixture sits deliberately below the de-vigged market at 33.6% because recency and path-luck amplification were excluded.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 30%International-results ratings (pure model)
- 55%De-vigged market with confirmed injuries and Argentina reconciliation
- 15%England altitude penalty at Azteca R16 (double-count corrected)
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
France lead at 24.6%, backed by the top-ranked squad and a dominant group stage.
24.6% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France won all three group games including 3-0 over Sweden (Mbappe at 6 WC goals), giving 9/9 points and a 10-2 goal difference. Their EUR 1300M squad ranks first globally, earning a partial structural premium above pure ratings. The premium was reduced after critic review: only the squad-quality edge survives, cutting the mixture from 29.1% to 24.6%. The mixture sits deliberately below the de-vigged market at 33.6% because recency and path-luck amplification were excluded.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.2026 World Cup Bracket: Live Look At The Round Of 16 Matchups | FOX Sportscitedfoxsports.com
- 2.Brazil Injury Update: Lucas Paqueta Suffers Thigh Injury, Will Neymar Start vs Norway in FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16? Check Selecao Likely Lineupcitedsundayguardianlive.com
- 3.Experts release new Spain vs. Austria predictions after Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino injury news - syracuse.comcitedsyracuse.com
- 4.2026 FIFA WC: No Williams or Pino, but Yamal's fitness is a boost for Spain ahead of Austria clashcitedianslive.in
- 5.World Cup 2026: Jarell Quansah and Reece James miss England v DR Congo match - BBC Sportcitedbbc.com
- 6.World Cup 2026: England boss Thomas Tuchel urges parents to let kids stay up for Mexico game - BBC Sportcitedbbc.co.uk
- 7.England 2026 World Cup news: Reece James and Jarell Quansah to miss last-32 clash vs DR Congo with injury | Football News | Sky Sportscitedskysports.com
- 8.Mbappe makes World Cup history as France brush past Sweden: Live updates and reaction - The Athleticcitednytimes.com
- 9.Didier Deschamps not worried about William Saliba back pain despite France star missing training sessions | Goal.com UScitedgoal.com
- 10.2026 World Cup results, standings and schedule: Live scores, knockout round updates and how to watch - Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com
- 11.Problems for Brazil, two players risk the World Cup - Sportcna.al
- 12.Neymar could return to the starting team as Brazil rule out Lucas Paqueta for Round of 16 clash vs Norway - World Soccer Talkworldsoccertalk.com
- 13.Belgium beats Senegal World Cup extra time thrillerusatoday.com
- 14.World Cup 2026 Odds: Winner Prediction & Bracket Squawkasquawka.com
- 15.England at the 2026 World Cup: Schedule, results, how to watch, news, analysis, injuries, more - ESPNespn.com
- 16.2026 FIFA World Cup round of 32 bracket, matchups, scores, results - CBS Sportscbssports.com
Internal forecast workings
1Combining the competing worlds
Submit-ready mixture registered as . Three worlds: this scenario (0.30), this scenario (0.55), england_r16_disadvantage (0.15). spain_recovery collapsed (Williams+Pino confirmed OUT). France disagreement resolved as the model/market axis with this scenario carrying DeltaDist(0.18,0.04). England…
- MIXTURE REGISTERED: , three worlds: this scenario (0.30), this scenario (0.55), england_r16_disadvantage (0.15). Noise floor 0.16pp.
- PRIOR WORLD AUDIT: (1) this scenario 0.35->0.30: CARRIED but reduced; market evidence stronger post-R32. (2) this scenario 0.45->0.55: REWEIGHTED up; France structural gap above model p90 confirmed. (3) spain_recovery 0.20->COLLAPSED: Williams+Pino confirmed OUT for R16 (, ); no recovery…
- FRANCE DISAGREEMENT (, ): Model 18.6% vs market 33.6%, gap 15pp, above model p90=24%. Structural case FOR market: squad value EUR1300M, 9/9 group stage (10-2 GD), Mbappe 6 WC goals, path cleared (Paraguay R16), path difficulty 1.204 (moderate). Case FOR model: balanced pulls-up/pulls…
- ENGLAND R16 BRANCH (, , ): Altitude at Azteca 2200m, England unacclimatized (2-day arrival), RB crisis (Spence only). MatchRatePerturbation match 92 (England home_goals_delta=-0.2, away_goals_delta=+0.15) priced at England +1.35pp title delta vs floor 0.92pp -- MATERIAL above…
- SPAIN WILLIAMS/PINO OUT (, ): Confirmed OUT for Austria R16. Spain discount DeltaDist(-0.09,0.02) in this scenario. Impact priced: Spain -4.85pp vs floor 0.92pp. Market already prices Spain at 9.9% vs model 14.9%. spain_recovery world collapsed. Spain mixture mean 10.3%.
2Step 2
Corrected registered (3 worlds: this scenario 0.30, this scenario 0.55, england_r16_disadvantage 0.15). Three structural defects fixed: (1) France reduced from 29.1% to 24.8% by shrinking delta from DeltaDist(0.18,0.04) to (0.10,0.05); earned justification limited to squad EUR1300M rank-1 and…
- France corrected: mixture 24.8% (was 29.1%), this scenario conditional 27.6%, this scenario 18.3%. DeltaDist(0.10,0.05) retains only earned structural premium; France vs_floor=1.94 (width 18.6pp vs parameter floor 9.6pp), sitting within model p90 band of ~24%.
- England altitude collision fixed: corrected MatchRatePerturbation signs (match 92 Mexico City: home +0.15 xG, away -0.2 xG) and Mexico strength perturbation removed from england_r16_disadvantage world. England in altitude world 8.44% < this scenario 9.54% - direction now correct. Mexico gets only fixt…
- Argentina reconciled: +0.005 strength delta in this scenario and england_r16_disadvantage. Mixture Argentina 17.6% vs market 18.0%; implied delta was 0.005 (barely above 0.51pp noise floor); gap now within noise. No model-invisible edge to justify sub-market stance.
- Mixture spread vs floor: France 1.94x, Spain 1.14x, Brazil 1.12x, Argentina 1.08x. England 0.99x (floor-level width, honest given the narrow market gap). Note: yesterday_p10/p90 for England shows 5.4-15.1, current 5.9-12.4 is tighter but structurally consistent.
- Axis audit: this scenario serves as ratings-only skeptical anchor; this scenario corrects France premium and reconciles Argentina; england_r16_disadvantage prices the fixture-specific altitude branch with correct sign and no double-count. france_premium branch status priced (corrected). england-double-al…
