Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France lead at 24.6%, backed by the top-ranked squad and a dominant group stage.
24.6% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France won all three group games including 3-0 over Sweden (Mbappe at 6 WC goals), giving 9/9 points and a 10-2 goal difference. Their EUR 1300M squad ranks first globally, earning a partial structural premium above pure ratings. The premium was reduced after critic review: only the squad-quality edge survives, cutting the mixture from 29.1% to 24.6%. The mixture sits deliberately below the de-vigged market at 33.6% because recency and path-luck amplification were excluded.
France lead at 24.6%, backed by the top-ranked squad and a dominant group stage.
24.6% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France won all three group games including 3-0 over Sweden (Mbappe at 6 WC goals), giving 9/9 points and a 10-2 goal difference. Their EUR 1300M squad ranks first globally, earning a partial structural premium above pure ratings. The premium was reduced after critic review: only the squad-quality edge survives, cutting the mixture from 29.1% to 24.6%. The mixture sits deliberately below the de-vigged market at 33.6% because recency and path-luck amplification were excluded.
