Forecast @ 1 July 06:34 ET (Round of 32)
33m 49s runtime · $4.14
France lead at 27.3% on dominant group form and a favourable draw after Germany's elimination. Argentina are second, Spain third with wing fitness unresolved, England fourth. Brazil sit below their historical rating as the betting market after removing bookmaker margin applies a sustained discount. Germany and Netherlands are eliminated; our ratings from international results land below the market on France, and the mixture closes most of that gap.
- France0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- England0.0%
- Brazil0.0%
- Portugal0.0%
- Colombia0.0%
- Belgium0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 8.1%Market 7.0%+1.1pp above
Our international-results ratings put Brazil higher, but the betting market prices them around 7%. No positive injury return or form evidence has emerged to close that gap; the mixture leans toward the market's read of Brazil's current squad depth and form.
Our forecast 12.0%Market 10.4%+1.6pp above
Our international-results ratings put Spain above the market consensus; the gap reflects open uncertainty over the fitness of wide players Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino. The spain_recovery world at 20% weight represents the scenario where both are available for the quarterfinals; without them Spain sit closer to the market discount.
Our forecast 27.3%Market 32.0%-4.8pp below
France won their group with 10 goals for and 2 against, beat Sweden 3-0 with Mbappe scoring twice, and face Paraguay in R16. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin prices France around 32%, well above our international-results ratings of around 19%; the mixture weights that gap as structural, driven by squad depth, Mbappe's record chase, and knockout pedigree.
Our forecast 3.6%Market 2.7%+0.9pp above
The market's Colombia discount is treated as structural; the mixture blends model and market views, landing between them. No fresh fitness or tactical evidence this cycle changes that picture.
Our forecast 8.8%Market 10.0%-1.3pp below
Reece James and Jarell Quansah are both ruled out, with Djed Spence starting. The betting market prices England around 10%, already incorporating both injuries. The market's higher number versus our base rating reflects England's bracket position and knockout ceiling.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 35%International-results ratings (pure model)
- 45%Betting market consensus
- 20%Spain wing players return fit before quarterfinals
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
France lead the field after a dominant group stage and a favourable R16 draw.
27.3% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France won their group with 10 goals for and 2 against, beat Sweden 3-0 with Mbappe scoring twice, and face Paraguay in R16. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin prices France around 32%, well above our international-results ratings of around 19%; the mixture weights that gap as structural, driven by squad depth, Mbappe's record chase, and knockout pedigree.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.Mbappe makes World Cup history as France brush past Sweden: Live updates and reaction - The Athleticcitednytimes.com
- 2.France v Sweden LIVE: Result and reaction as Kylian Mbappe inspires Les Bleus into World Cup last 16 | The Independentcitedthe-independent.com
- 3.England 2026 World Cup news: Reece James and Jarell Quansah to miss last-32 clash vs DR Congo with injury | Football News | Sky Sportscitedskysports.com
- 4.Jarell Quansah, Reece James to miss England vs. DR Congo with injury – Thomas Tuchel - The Athleticcitednytimes.com
- 5.Didier Deschamps not worried about William Saliba back pain despite France star missing training sessions | Goal.com UScitedgoal.com
- 6.France dispatch Sweden behind Mbappe brace, advance to World Cup round of 16 - CBS Sportscbssports.com
- 7.2026 World Cup results, standings and schedule - Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com
- 8.World Cup 2026 Round of 32: Full bracket, results, matchups - Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com
- 9.2026 FIFA World Cup - Britannicabritannica.com
- 10.World Cup 2026 bracket and knockout fixtures - who's facing who in the last 32 and route to final | Football News | Sky Sportsskysports.com
- 11.World Cup injury tracker: Neymar, Mohamed Salah and Reece James updates | The Independentthe-independent.com
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
Gap audit and prior-world review as of 2026-07-01. France has a 13.48pp structural gap (model 18.55%, market 32.03%), sitting 7.67pp above the model p90 band; bracket clearing is already priced into the model number. England's gap is 4.73pp (model 5.26%, market 9.99%), with an implied strength delta…
- TOP-10 TITLE PROBABILITIES (model_gaps as_of 2026-07-01T10:04 UTC): France model 18.55% vs market 32.03% gap_pp=-13.48; Brazil model 13.63% vs market 6.96% gap_pp=+6.67; Spain model 15.82% vs market 10.38% gap_pp=+5.44; England model 5.26% vs market 9.99% gap_pp=-4.73; Colombia model 5.54% vs market…
- ENGLAND FOCUS: Model 5.26%, market 9.99%, gap_pp=-4.73pp (brief cited 5.4pp; today is 4.73pp, minor drift since prior run). Implied strength delta model->market: +0.1251 strength units (from wq.implied_delta). England parameter uncertainty band p10=3.96% to p90=8.52%; market 9.99% is 1.47pp OUTSIDE…
- FRANCE GAP DECOMPOSITION: Gap_pp=-13.48pp from market_gaps. France bracket path (Sweden->Paraguay->Morocco/Canada) is easy, and France's model title probability of 18.55% ALREADY reflects this bracket clearing. Path verification: R32 vs Sweden adv 100%, R16 vs Paraguay adv 80.28%, QF vs Morocco/Cana…
- PRIOR WORLDS REVIEW: this scenario (0.35) CARRIED FORWARD - pure model anchor with no perturbations; France win vs Sweden absorbed in baseline, no double-counting risk. this scenario (0.45) CARRIED FORWARD WITH REFRESH - France implied delta drifted from 0.2023 (prior) to 0.1708 (today) as model absorbed…
- DELTA TABLE (noise floor 0.55pp, all deltas from market_gaps gap_pp or wq.implied_delta): France market gap -13.48pp (floor 0.55pp, material); England market gap -4.73pp (floor 0.55pp, material); Brazil model premium +6.67pp (floor 0.55pp, material); Spain model premium +5.44pp (floor 0.55pp, materi…
2Step 2
Four branch adjudications completed; mixture registered as artifact . Q1: England RB crisis branch collapsed -- James+Quansah injuries expire 2026-07-01 (match-scoped only), and a MatchRatePerturbation cannot bind to the knockout fixture in the tool; the tournament-long -0.07 upper bound…
- Q1 branch-england-knockout-thin-defence: COLLAPSED. James+Quansah absences confirmed only for DR Congo match (both ledger entries expire 2026-07-01). Tournament-long strength delta of -0.07 gives -1.596pp vs 0.262pp floor -- material but wrong scope. Correct instrument is a single-match MatchRatePer…
- Q2 branch-france-dominant: COLLAPSED as double-count. France 3-0 Sweden already persisted in sim overlay baseline. update_from_result posterior_mean_delta=+0.0123 strength units -> +0.418pp title impact, technically above 0.262pp floor, but applying it double-counts a result the baseline already abs…
- Q3 branch-france-market-premium-explained: EARNED AND MERGED INTO MARKET_BASE. Gap of 13.48pp (model 18.85% vs market 32.03%) is structural, sitting 7.67pp above model p90 band. Market premium explained by: Mbappe KO pedigree (10 all-time KO goals), 2018/2022 tournament pedigree, Germany/Netherlands…
- Q4 branch-england-pre-result: COLLAPSED. England vs DR Congo not yet played but baseline already prices advancement at ~81.24%. Pre-result uncertainty is captured probabilistically in baseline. RB injuries are single-match scoped (Q1). No standalone pre-result world needed; bases jointly express the…
- Prior world audit: this scenario (0.35) CARRIED FORWARD unchanged. this scenario (0.45) REFRESHED -- France delta updated from 0.2023 to 0.1708 (model absorbed Sweden result), England delta updated from 0.1166 to 0.1251, other deltas unchanged. spain_recovery (0.20) CARRIED FORWARD -- Williams/Pino fitne…
3Step 3
Branch-france-dominant is collapsed. The posterior strength update from France 3-0 Sweden maps to +0.0123 strength units (posterior_mean_delta from update_from_result, prior_sd=0.1222 barely moves to 0.1209), which translates to +0.79pp title probability above the 0.255pp noise floor. However, apply…
- branch-france-dominant COLLAPSED. update_from_result(france, sweden, win) gives posterior_mean_delta=+0.0123 strength units (prior_sd=0.1222 to posterior_sd=0.1209). The +0.0123 delta maps to +0.79pp France title probability, nominally above the 0.255pp noise floor. However, the result (France 3-0 S…
- Group stage dominance (: 9pts/10GF/2GA) is entirely consistent with France's pre-tournament rating. All group results are in the baseline. proposed_delta=0 on , , in the ledger confirms no new signal.
- Saliba back issue (): confirmed managed, not a blocker, proposed_delta=0. No availability world needed.
- this scenario world (weight 0.45, France delta=mean 0.1708 sd=0.04) already carries France's full dominance premium via de-vigged 32.03% market price. Merging branch-france-dominant here is not double-counting: the market price incorporates the post-result form signal; the world is anchored to that ex…
- Mixture-003 registered (artifact ): three worlds unchanged from (this scenario 0.35, this scenario 0.45, spain_recovery 0.20). France 27.95% mixture title, England 8.58% mixture title. Noise floor 0.314pp.
4Step 4
Three critic tails adjudicated; registered at unchanged 3-world structure (this scenario 35%, this scenario 45%, spain_recovery 20%) with Brazil delta corrected from -0.1627 to -0.1503 (current implied market). All three branches collapse on adjudication: Brazil recovery lacks any positive le…
- BRAZIL ASYMMETRY COLLAPSED: Brazil discount (-0.1503 updated from -0.1627) asymmetry vs Spain recovery world is JUSTIFIED. Spain recovery exists because Williams/Pino fitness uncertainty can resolve positively (named trigger). Brazil has zero confirmed positive ledger entries; no positive resolution…
- MOROCCO PATH-LEVERAGE COLLAPSED: Morocco posterior update from Netherlands penalty win = +0.0264 strength units, yielding +0.54pp title impact (above floor 0.262pp). However the Netherlands result is already absorbed by the baseline; applying the posterior would double-count it. Path leverage (QF vs…
- ENGLAND DEFENSIVE FRAGILITY COLLAPSED: Mexico R16 path gives England only 53.3% advance (path is genuinely fragile). Mexico at 55% advance = -0.688pp England (above 0.262pp floor but barely). However, both RB injuries ( James, Quansah) are public and already priced in the market's 9…
- MIXTURE SPREAD: England 10.0pp width, 1.73x floor [OK]. France 21.2pp, 1.98x floor [OK]. Spain 11.8pp, 1.17x floor [OK]. Brazil 11.1pp, 1.30x floor [OK]. Argentina 9.5pp, 0.93x floor [WARN - no contested evidence, acceptable]. Portugal 5.2pp, 0.93x floor [WARN - no contested evidence, acceptable].
- PUBLISHED DISTRIBUTION: France 27.87% (model 19.29%, market 32.66%, spain_recovery 31.10%), Argentina 17.47%, Spain 12.15%, England 8.57% (model 5.46%, market 10.83%, spain_recovery 10.52%), Brazil 8.12% (model 12.64%, market 5.73%), Portugal 6.27%, Colombia 3.42%, Belgium 3.18%, Morocco 3.10%, Norw…
