Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France lead the field after a dominant group stage and a favourable R16 draw.
27.3% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France won their group with 10 goals for and 2 against, beat Sweden 3-0 with Mbappe scoring twice, and face Paraguay in R16. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin prices France around 32%, well above our international-results ratings of around 19%; the mixture weights that gap as structural, driven by squad depth, Mbappe's record chase, and knockout pedigree.
France lead the field after a dominant group stage and a favourable R16 draw.
27.3% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France won their group with 10 goals for and 2 against, beat Sweden 3-0 with Mbappe scoring twice, and face Paraguay in R16. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin prices France around 32%, well above our international-results ratings of around 19%; the mixture weights that gap as structural, driven by squad depth, Mbappe's record chase, and knockout pedigree.
