Forecast @ 30 June 06:28 ET (Round of 32)
27m 39s runtime · $3.81
France lead the World Cup 2026 field at 22.9% after Germany and Netherlands are eliminated. Our mixture weights international-results ratings, the betting market, and a Spain wing-recovery scenario. Argentina sit second at 17.6%, Spain third and England fourth. The key live uncertainty is whether Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino return fit before the quarterfinals.
- France0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- England0.0%
- Brazil0.0%
- Portugal0.0%
- Morocco0.0%
- Belgium0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 8.3%Market 7.3%+1.0pp above
The market prices Brazil at 7.3% against our model's 14.4%. Neymar is increasing his minutes after a calf injury but the measured impact at the supported level is below the simulation noise floor. We respect the market discount and Brazil land at 8.3%.
Our forecast 12.9%Market 11.3%+1.6pp above
Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino suffered setbacks against Uruguay. The market prices this in with an 11.3% price against the model's 16.6%. We carry an extra 20% world for recovery, landing Spain at 12.9% across the mixture.
Our forecast 22.9%Market 27.5%-4.5pp below
The betting market prices France at 27.5% against our international-results rating of 13.4%, a gap too wide to fully credit the model. Germany and Netherlands are eliminated, strengthening France's path. We blend both instruments and France land at the top of our published forecast.
Our forecast 9.5%Market 10.5%-1.0pp below
Our international-results model rates England at 6.1%, while the de-vigged market is at 10.6%. Reece James is doubtful for the R16 against DR Congo on 1 July, but the quantified R16-scoped impact is below the tournament-wide signal threshold. We blend the two instruments and England come out at 9.5%.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 35%International-results ratings
- 45%Betting market consensus (Spain wing discount maintained)
- 20%Spain wing injury resolves before quarterfinals
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
France lead the field after Germany and Netherlands exit cleared the bracket.
22.9% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The betting market prices France at 27.5% against our international-results rating of 13.4%, a gap too wide to fully credit the model. Germany and Netherlands are eliminated, strengthening France's path. We blend both instruments and France land at the top of our published forecast.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.Match Centre: England v DR Congo | England Footballcitedenglandfootball.com
- 2.Morocco beat Netherlands on penalties to reach World Cup 2026 last 16: Live updates and reaction - The Athleticcitednytimes.com
- 3.World Cup 2026 today: Live updates, news as Germany, Netherlands dumped out of World Cup on penalties - June 30 - ESPNcitedespn.com
- 4.England faces D.R. Congo in World Cup R16 with key injuriescitedcryptobriefing.com
- 5.World Cup injury tracker: Neymar, Mohamed Salah and Reece James updates | The Independentcitedthe-independent.com
- 6.World Cup 2026 bracket: Live Round of 32 updates - The Athleticnytimes.com
- 7.Morocco edge wild last-32 penalty shootout - Guardiantheguardian.com
- 8.England at the 2026 World Cup: Schedule, results, how to watch, news, analysis, injuries, more - ESPNespn.com
- 9.France vs Sweden FIFA World Cup 2026 Previewgoal.com
- 10.World Cup 2026 Round of 32: Full bracket results - Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
England title audit as of 30 June 2026. Model baseline 6.16%, de-vigged market 10.56%, Polymarket 9.96%, prior published 9.1%. The market carries a structural +4.50pp premium on England vs the model (above the 0.168pp floor). The prior worlds (this scenario 0.45, this scenario 0.55 from ) stil…
- Model vs market: England model 6.16% vs de-vigged market 10.56% = -4.50pp market premium; Polymarket 9.96% (legs broadly agree, +0.60pp disagree). Gap is structural (above 0.168pp noise floor) and unchanged from prior run.
- Prior worlds (: this scenario 0.45, this scenario 0.55) still express England's live uncertainty. England was 6.57%/10.96% in those worlds vs 6.16%/10.56% today -- minimal drift (-0.4pp each). The world axis remains valid. Today's fallback uses 0.27/0.73 (more market weight) yieldi…
- Path difficulty: R32 vs DR Congo (rank 33) is accessible (80.9% advance). R16 likely Mexico or Ecuador (57.0%). But QF draws Brazil 71% of paths (rank 4, 50.4% advance given play) and SF draws Argentina 51% of paths (rank 2, 51.6%). Final opponents are Spain/France. England's bracket from QF onward…
- Reece James (): Full-tournament DeltaDist(mean=-0.05, sd=0.03) produces England delta -1.45pp, above the 0.168pp noise floor -- MATERIAL if confirmed out for the tournament. The mechanism is right for a StrengthPerturbation only if James misses multiple knockout fixtures. However, evidence e…
- Livramento withdrawal (replaced by Chalobah) is already in the baseline squad structure. The positional mismatch (CB-to-RB) is captured within the James story rather than a separate perturbation, as Livramento was not a first-choice RB.
2Step 2
Four candidate branches were adjudicated against the baseline (noise floor 0.455pp) and the de-vigged market. Branch (a) Spain-wing-depth: delta -2.08pp for Spain, above floor and material, but the market already discounts Spain below the model (11.3% vs 16.6% model) and has had three days to price…
- Branch (a) spain-wing-depth (): Spain title delta = -2.08pp (noise floor 0.455pp). Material signal, above floor. However market has already discounted Spain to 11.3% vs model 16.6% and has had 3 days since the Uruguay match (June 27) to absorb the Williams/Pino setbacks. The wing injury is o…
- Branch (b) neymar-impact-brazil ( + ): Brazil's Japan result is already in the baseline -- no bracket double-counting. Neymar partial return perturbation yields +2.95pp for Brazil (above floor). But this is fully public news; market prices Brazil at 7.3% vs model 14.4%, a -7pp gap me…
- Branch (c) morocco-deep-run ( + ): Morocco win vs Netherlands is in the baseline. The possession quality claim adds a +1.71pp delta above floor, but this is driven by a model strength bump that would push Morocco above the market's current 3.9% price (model already at 3.5% with marke…
- Branch (d) france-today-fixture / market gap ( + ): France model 13.59% vs market 27.49%, gap 13.9pp. France model p10-p90 is 10.4%-17.0%; market 27.5% is well outside the parameter uncertainty band -- this is a structural disagreement. The implied strength delta to reach market is +…
- Prior world continuity: previous run (agent-20260629-100058) published this scenario (0.45) + this scenario (0.55). Both worlds are carried forward. Germany's KO discount world (delta -0.10) is now moot -- Germany is eliminated; remove from this scenario. Spain wing injury merges into this scenario (the exis…
3Combining the competing worlds
Registered mixture artifact (england-mixture-30jun2026) with three worlds: this scenario (0.35), this scenario (0.45), england_rb_crisis (0.20). England blends to 9.10%, France to 23.97%. The England RB crisis branch (Reece James, ) is the only surviving football-first axis at -1.36pp…
- Registered artifact: (england-mixture-30jun2026). Worlds: this scenario 0.35, this scenario 0.45, england_rb_crisis 0.20. England 9.10%, France 23.97%.
- Branch audit - branch-england-right-back-crisis (): PRICED. Full-tournament DeltaDist(mean=-0.05, sd=0.03) => England -1.36pp (floor 0.212pp, previously 0.615pp at 20k seed=42). Material and above floor. Expressed in england_rb_crisis world at 0.20 weight (doubtful probability 40%). Evidence…
- Branch audit - branch-spain-wing-depth (): MERGED_INTO_BASE. Delta -2.08pp for Spain, above 0.455pp floor, but market has had 3 days to price Williams/Pino (Spain 11.3% vs model 16.73%); merged into this scenario Spain implied delta (-0.0912 strength units).
- Branch audit - branch-neymar-impact-brazil (): COLLAPSED. +2.95pp signal above floor but fully public and market-visible; market prices Brazil at 7.3% vs model 14.4%, heavy discount absorbs this positive. No standalone world.
- Branch audit - branch-morocco-deep-run (, ): REJECTED. +1.71pp from possession quality claim; market already above model (3.9% vs 3.5%); no market-invisible mechanism. Morocco result in baseline.
4Re-pricing after challenge
Three critic tails repriced; corrected mixture registered as . England crisis world dropped (R32-scoped James perturbation is -0.08pp, below the 0.618pp paired-seed floor), Spain recovery earned a 0.20-weight world (+6.67pp above floor), and Brazil Neymar at its ceiling of delta=…
- TAIL 1 -- England R32 James (): correct instrument is StageConditionalStrength scoped to r32 (expiry 2026-07-01). Delta = -0.08pp vs paired-seed floor 0.618pp. BELOW FLOOR. england_rb_crisis world dropped from mixture. England stays in this scenario at +0.1166 market-implied uplift; published…
- TAIL 2 -- Spain wing-depth partial unwind (): removing the -0.0912 market-embedded Spain discount (full-tournament scenario representing Williams/Pino recovery post-2026-07-02) yields Spain delta = +6.67pp vs floor 0.618pp. WELL ABOVE FLOOR. Earns a spain_recovery world at weight 0.20. At QF…
- TAIL 3 -- Brazil Neymar knockout pace (): at the ledger-supported ceiling delta=0.02, QF-conditional strength yields Brazil delta = +0.14pp vs floor 0.618pp. BELOW FLOOR. Stress-testing at 3x ceiling (delta=0.06) gives +0.755pp barely above floor but requires no market-invisible evidence --…
- MIXTURE SPREAD (vs_floor): France 2.28x floor (22.8pp width), England 1.79x (9.6pp width), Brazil 1.60x (10.9pp width), Spain 1.38x (12.7pp width), Colombia 1.19x (5.0pp width), Argentina 0.92x (10.0pp width -- parameter-noise-dominated, bracket uncertainty well-modelled). All key teams have vs_floo…
- AXIS NOTE: candidate axes = (1) model vs market (France gap structural, primary axis kept); (2) England RB crisis (below floor when correctly scoped, collapsed); (3) Spain wing-depth recovery (above floor, earned own world); (4) Brazil Neymar knockout (below floor at ledger ceiling, collapsed). Surv…
