Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France lead the field after Germany and Netherlands exit cleared the bracket.
22.9% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The betting market prices France at 27.5% against our international-results rating of 13.4%, a gap too wide to fully credit the model. Germany and Netherlands are eliminated, strengthening France's path. We blend both instruments and France land at the top of our published forecast.
France lead the field after Germany and Netherlands exit cleared the bracket.
22.9% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The betting market prices France at 27.5% against our international-results rating of 13.4%, a gap too wide to fully credit the model. Germany and Netherlands are eliminated, strengthening France's path. We blend both instruments and France land at the top of our published forecast.
