Forecast @ 29 June 06:35 ET (Round of 32)
34m 58s runtime · $3.70
England fourth at 9.1%, facing DR Congo on July 1 with right-back cover stretched but simulated impact below the 0.3pp materiality threshold; France leads at 17.6% because the betting market after removing bookmaker margin prices them 11.9pp above our international-results ratings, a gap outside our own model uncertainty band, expressed as a 45-model vs 55-market world-weight split. Argentina second at 17.5%, Spain third at 12.7%.
- France0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- England0.0%
- Portugal0.0%
- Brazil0.0%
- Netherlands0.0%
- Colombia0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 6.5%Market 5.8%+0.7pp above
Neymar is confirmed available for Brazil's R32 vs Japan but likely in a substitute role. The model baseline already absorbs his reduced status, and the market camp applies a further Brazil discount. Brazil sit sixth in the published ranking.
Our forecast 12.7%Market 10.9%+1.8pp above
Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino are probable doubts for Spain's R32 vs Austria. The expected impact, once weighted by recovery probability, falls below the noise threshold for a standalone world, so the market camp's existing Spain discount captures this risk. Spain sit third overall.
Our forecast 17.6%Market 21.6%-4.0pp below
Our international-results ratings give France around 10.5% (model camp) while the de-vigged betting market implies about 24.0% (market camp), an 11.9pp gap confirmed outside our model uncertainty band. The 45/55 world-weight split is the honest way to express this uncertainty rather than adding a separate France world, which prior runs did and which was flagged as double-counting. The published 17.6% reflects the blend.
Our forecast 3.7%Market 2.5%+1.3pp above
The market camp applies a sizable Colombia discount, bringing their implied probability well below our model rating. Colombia sit eighth overall, with the published blend reflecting market scepticism about their deep-run prospects despite solid model ratings.
Our forecast 9.1%Market 10.7%-1.6pp below
Reece James is out and Jarell Quansah is doubtful for the July 1 DR Congo match. Simulations show the combined title impact is below the 0.3pp threshold against a rank-33 side, and Declan Rice's likely return provides a near-offsetting positive in midfield. England's 9.1% reflects the market camp's higher view of their knockout ceiling blended with the model's lower rating.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 45%International-results ratings
- 55%Betting market consensus
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
France leads at 17.6%, with a wide range between the two camps reflecting a genuine ratings vs market split.
17.6% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our international-results ratings give France around 10.5% (model camp) while the de-vigged betting market implies about 24.0% (market camp), an 11.9pp gap confirmed outside our model uncertainty band. The 45/55 world-weight split is the honest way to express this uncertainty rather than adding a separate France world, which prior runs did and which was flagged as double-counting. The published 17.6% reflects the blend.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.World Cup 2026: Declan Rice set to start for England against DR Congo - BBC Sportcitedbbc.com
- 2.England’s right-back problems deepen with Jarell Quansah likely to miss DR Congo tie | England | The Guardiancitedtheguardian.com
- 3.Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino could return for Spain in the 2026 World Cup knockout stage despite injuries - World Soccer Talkcitedworldsoccertalk.com
- 4.Will Neymar play against Japan? Brazil coach Carlo Ancelotti gives updatecitedeu.usatoday.com
- 5.Argentina focus on World Cup round of 32 after perfect group stagecitedeu.usatoday.com
- 6.World Cup 2026 bracket and knockout fixtures - Sky Sportsskysports.com
- 7.FIFA World Cup 2026 – Every match result on Monday 29 June – Live scoresolympics.com
- 8.World Cup 2026 Knockout Stage Bracket: Updated live results for Round of 32clutchpoints.com
- 9.World Cup injury tracker: Neymar, Mohamed Salah and Reece James updates | The Independentthe-independent.com
- 10.FIFA World Cup 2026 results: 29 June scores, match reports and highlights | SBS Newssbs.com.au
- 11.Fact Check: Is Neymar Injured Again? Viral Training Video Reignites Concerns Ahead Of FIFA World Cup Knockouts | WATCHsundayguardianlive.com
- 12.England faces D.R. Congo in World Cup R16 with key injuriescryptobriefing.com
- 13.World Cup 2026: Egypt star Mohamed Salah doubtful for crucial Australia clashafricasoccer.com
- 14.World Cup 2026: Didier Deschamps returns to France camp after mother's funeralafricasoccer.com
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
France structural gap confirmed at -11.89pp, outside the model p10-p90 parameter band (model p90 = 13.3%, market = 21.6%); prior france_enhanced world at 0.22 weight is carried. England RB: James absence is material at -0.75pp on title, Rice return is material at +0.90pp; Quansah incremental (once J…
- MODEL VS MARKET GAP TABLE (noise floor 0.26pp; 50k sims, seed 42): | Team | Model% | Market% | Gap pp | Noise floor | Label | Why market right | Why model right | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | France | 9.6% | 21.6% | -11.9pp | 0.26 | EARNED | EUR 1300M squad, WC pedigree (2018 win, 2022 final)…
- ENGLAND RB AVAILABILITY PRICING (50k sims, seed 42; noise floor 0.262pp): (Reece James out, hamstring): StrengthPerturbation mean=-0.03, sd=0.01, expiry 2026-07-05 (covers R32 and likely R16). England title delta = -0.75pp. MATERIAL (above 0.26pp floor). James is the primary RB; Djed Spenc…
- FRANCE STRUCTURAL GAP RE-AUDIT: Model = 9.64%, market = 21.57%, gap = -11.89pp. Model p10-p90 band = 7.7% to 13.3%. Market price of 21.6% is 8.3pp above the model's p90 - a structural gap confirmed at current state, matching the prior run's finding. Implied strength delta = +0.201 (prior run used 0.
- PRIOR CONTINUITY: Prior run published france_enhanced at 0.22, england_rb_r32only at 0.07, england_rb_through_r16 at 0.08. Current evidence does not change these axes materially. James is confirmed still absent and increasingly unlikely for R16, consistent with the through_r16 world. Rice return is…
2Step 2
All five ledger items priced against the 0.26pp noise floor. Spain winger injuries () produce a Spain title delta of -0.39pp at the proposed -0.02 stage-r32 strength perturbation -- this clears the floor in the worst case but once weighted by the "probable recovery" probability (P~0.3-0.5 bo…
- (Spain wingers Nico Williams + Yeremy Pino, probable R32 absence): Stage-r32 strength delta -0.02 produces Spain title delta -0.39pp vs 0.26pp noise floor. Clears floor at full magnitude but status=probable with reported possible recovery; weighted expected delta ~-0.12 to -0.19pp falls at/…
- (Neymar available Brazil R32 vs Japan): NO-PRICED-EFFECT. Neymar already played as a sub in group stage -- partial availability already absorbed by baseline. 34yo sub-role player, proposed delta +0.01pp, entry expired 2026-06-29. Below floor by mechanism.
- (Argentina Messi rotation vs Jordan): NO-PRICED-EFFECT. Proposed delta = 0.0, confirmed no injury, confirmed healthy squad entering knockouts. Ordinary managed rotation with no tournament-long implication.
- (Reece James out R32) + (Quansah major doubt R32): NO-PRICED-EFFECT. Combined stage-r32 England strength delta -0.04 yields England title change of +0.11pp -- below the 0.26pp noise floor. Both entries expire 2026-07-01 (R32 only). Position-specific defensive backup loss vs rank-33…
- (Declan Rice expected return R32): MARGINAL-POSITIVE (+0.27pp vs 0.26pp floor). Stage-r32 delta +0.02. Just clears floor but entry is expiry-R32-only and Rice was always in the squad; this is confirmed return from minor rest, not fresh upside. Roughly offsets RB negatives at the match level…
3Combining the competing worlds
Registered mixture artifact (england_focus_mixture_20260629) with 5 worlds across 4 camps. France 18.0%, Argentina 17.8%, Spain 13.2%, England 8.1%. Prior 5-world structure carried unchanged: evidence from /002 confirms all axes still live. England RB axis (0.15 total) earns 1.5…
- REGISTERED ARTIFACT: (england_focus_mixture_20260629). 5 worlds, 4 visible camps, total weight 1.00.
- WORLD WEIGHTS: this scenario 0.25, this scenario 0.38, france_enhanced 0.22, england_rb_r32only 0.07, england_rb_through_r16 0.08.
- TOP TITLE PROBS: France 18.0%, Argentina 17.8%, Spain 13.2%, England 8.1%, Brazil 7.4%, Portugal 6.4%, Netherlands 5.5%, Colombia 4.3%, Germany 4.2%.
- NOISE FLOOR: 0.476pp (mixture-level, 50k sims per world). England axis worlds both above floor.
- MIXTURE SPREAD (England): mean 8.2%, p10 4.5%, p90 12.2%, width 7.7pp = 1.54x parameter floor (5.0pp). Confirmed: England axis earns visible width above irreducible noise.
4Step 4
Corrected England-focus mixture re-registered as (2 worlds: this scenario 0.45, this scenario 0.55). Three critic challenges resolved with simulation: (1) France double-count fixed -- france_enhanced collapsed as a substitute state; France premium uncertainty now expressed as world-weight (55…
- FRANCE DOUBLE-COUNT RESOLVED: france_enhanced world collapsed. this scenario (+0.201 delta) and france_enhanced (+0.201 sd=0.025 delta) are substitute states for the same underlying claim -- France deserves a +0.20 strength premium. Stacking them at 0.38+0.22=0.60 weight applied the premium in 100% of…
- ENGLAND RB PATH CONDITIONING: Stage-conditional perturbations auto-condition on England reaching each round -- verified by simulation. England's r16 reach is 80.4% in baseline. However the magnitude does not survive the floor: r32only world England title delta = -0.108pp (below 0.262pp floor), throu…
- SA KO LOAD TAIL: Priced correctly with stage-conditional perturbations (Brazil +0.03 r16/qf/sf/final, Argentina +0.02 r16/qf/sf/final). England title delta = -0.02pp -- noise, well below 0.262pp floor. Brazil gains +0.99pp and Argentina +1.24pp individually (above floor), but this is SA internal red…
- MIXTURE SPREAD (): France vs_floor=3.77x (width 20.4pp vs parameter floor 5.4pp) -- France width is genuine and world-driven. England vs_floor=1.59x (width 8.0pp vs floor 5.0pp) -- earned width from model/market split on England's 4.2pp market gap. Argentina vs_floor=0.94x (width 9.6pp vs…
- WORLDS: this scenario (weight=0.45): Germany KO discount DeltaDistribution(-0.10 sd=0.03); France 10.5%, England 6.7%. this scenario (weight=0.55): 6-contender de-vigged inversion; France 23.9%, England 10.9%. Collapsed: france_enhanced (duplicate France premium state), england_rb_r32only (below floor)…
