Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France leads at 17.6%, with a wide range between the two camps reflecting a genuine ratings vs market split.
17.6% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our international-results ratings give France around 10.5% (model camp) while the de-vigged betting market implies about 24.0% (market camp), an 11.9pp gap confirmed outside our model uncertainty band. The 45/55 world-weight split is the honest way to express this uncertainty rather than adding a separate France world, which prior runs did and which was flagged as double-counting. The published 17.6% reflects the blend.
France leads at 17.6%, with a wide range between the two camps reflecting a genuine ratings vs market split.
17.6% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our international-results ratings give France around 10.5% (model camp) while the de-vigged betting market implies about 24.0% (market camp), an 11.9pp gap confirmed outside our model uncertainty band. The 45/55 world-weight split is the honest way to express this uncertainty rather than adding a separate France world, which prior runs did and which was flagged as double-counting. The published 17.6% reflects the blend.
