Forecast @ 28 June 23:00 ET (Round of 32)
40m 27s runtime · $4.10
France leads at 17.1% and Argentina sits just behind at 16.9% as the Round of 32 opens, with Spain third at 13.3% and England fourth at 8.1%. The main live uncertainties are the depth of England's right-back cover and the structural case for France's squad depth over our international-results ratings.
- France0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- England0.0%
- Brazil0.0%
- Portugal0.0%
- Netherlands0.0%
- Colombia0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 13.3%Market 11.1%+2.3pp above
The de-vigged Spain price sits below our 15.7% ratings. We follow the market discount in the market camp, which already covers the Williams and Pino injuries as a tournament-wide concern. Adding a separate match-rate adjustment for the R32 Austria fixture would double-count the same mechanism, so Spain's ceiling risk is held as one focal discount.
Our forecast 17.1%Market 21.5%-4.5pp below
The de-vigged market prices France well above our ratings model's p90 ceiling. We add a structural camp for squad depth and the 2018 and 2022 tournament record, but land deliberately below market at 17.1%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the full market premium is structural or driven by bookmaker positioning. The Deschamps disruption scenario has been formally closed.
Our forecast 4.5%Market 2.4%+2.1pp above
Our model rates Colombia above the de-vigged market price. The market camp applies a Colombia discount, reflecting the market view that their group-stage form may not carry through knockouts. Colombia tops Group K and faces an open early draw.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 25%International-results ratings
- 38%Betting market consensus
- 20%France structural premium
- 17%England right-back uncertainty
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
France leads the forecast, backed by squad depth and World Cup pedigree that our ratings alone undervalue.
17.1% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The de-vigged market prices France well above our ratings model's p90 ceiling. We add a structural camp for squad depth and the 2018 and 2022 tournament record, but land deliberately below market at 17.1%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the full market premium is structural or driven by bookmaker positioning. The Deschamps disruption scenario has been formally closed.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.World Cup 2026 today: Live updates, latest news as it happened on June 28 - ESPNcitedespn.com
- 2.Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino could return for Spain in the 2026 World Cup knockout stage despite injuries - World Soccer Talkcitedworldsoccertalk.com
- 3.England faces D.R. Congo in World Cup R16 with key injuriescitedcryptobriefing.com
- 4.World Cup 2026 bracket and knockout fixtures - who's facing who in the last 32 and route to final | Football News | Sky Sportsskysports.com
- 5.2026 FIFA World Cup: Complete Guide – Britannicabritannica.com
- 6.World Cup Odds Tracker: ️All 48 Team Odds & Predictions (June 15) ⚽️defirate.com
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
Day 19 dossier for England-focus R32 forecast. Five prior worlds adjudicated; mixture registered as with France 17.2%, Argentina 17.8%, Spain 13.4%, England 8.1% (market 10.6%). England RB worlds confirmed material at -0.52pp per match vs 0.26pp noise floor, vs_floor=1.90. France structu…
- REGISTERED ARTIFACT: (england_r32_day19_mixture). Five worlds: this scenario 0.25 / this scenario 0.38 / france_enhanced 0.20 / england_rb_r32only 0.07 / england_rb_through_r16 0.10. Mixture noise floor 0.476pp.
- FRANCE REFERENCE AUDIT (Q1): Model 9.68% vs market 21.52%, gap -11.84pp. Model p10-p90 band is [7.7%, 13.3%]: market at 21.5% is OUTSIDE the p10-p90 band by >8pp, confirming the gap is structural and not parameter noise. france_enhanced world is EARNED AND CARRIED (trimmed to 0.20 from 0.22). With D…
- ENGLAND REFERENCE AUDIT (Q1): Model 6.49% vs market 10.63%, gap -4.14pp (de-vigged). Model p10-p90 band is [4.0%, 9.0%]: market at 10.6% also sits OUTSIDE the p90 9.0% ceiling. Gap is material at 4.14pp vs noise floor 0.26pp (>15x floor). Market case for England: host-region tournament ceiling, squa…
- ENGLAND PATH DIFFICULTY (Q4): difficulty=0.816 (below 1.0 = easier-than-average draw). R32 vs Congo DR (rank 33, p_advance=0.81). R16 vs Mexico/Ecuador (~0.57 advance). QF: Brazil dominant at 48% probability (hardest early test). SF: Argentina dominant at 52%. Final: Spain 24% / France 17% / Germany…
- CONTINUITY AUDIT (Q2): this scenario CARRY (Germany KO discount delta=N(-0.10, 0.03) still valid, confirmed). this scenario CARRY at 0.38 (six-team inversion; France delta 0.1998->0.2013, England 0.108->0.1024, both stable; prices current at 02:21Z Jun 29). france_enhanced CARRY at 0.20 (trimme…
2Step 2
Both injury branches were priced and neither earns a new world. England RB: the incremental from Livramento's withdrawal (Chalobah replacing as a CB-at-RB) adds only +0.032pp England title delta vs the 0.262pp noise floor (vs_floor=0.12), well below floor. The prior worlds already priced James absen…
- B2 England RB Crisis (, ): Incremental delta from Livramento withdrawal (Chalobah CB-at-RB as new backup vs specialist Livramento) = +0.032pp England title delta, noise floor 0.262pp, vs_floor=0.12. BELOW FLOOR. The new information does not materially change what already…
- B1 Spain Wing Depth (, ): R32 match-rate perturbation for Spain vs Austria (match 84) with both Nico Williams and Pino absent gives -1.246pp Spain title delta, noise floor 0.262pp, vs_floor=4.76. MATERIAL IN ISOLATION. However, this scenario already contains a Spain strength discount o…
- remains the forecast surface: 5 worlds (this scenario 0.25, this scenario 0.38, france_enhanced 0.20, england_rb_r32only 0.07, england_rb_through_r16 0.10). England 8.1%, Argentina 17.8%, France 17.2%, Spain 13.4%. No update required from either injury branch.
- Austria confirmed in Group J (strength 1.18), consistent with Spain's R32 slot at match 84 (1H vs 2J). Spain's R32 is the correctly identified fixture for the wing-absence pricing.
- Noise floor validated at 0.262pp (50k sims, seed 42), consistent with the 0.26pp prior-run floor.
3Step 3
All three critic tails were priced against 's worlds and rejected on mechanistic grounds. The corrected mixture is re-registered as (england_r32_day19_corrected) with identical worlds and weights to ; no reweight was earned. England stays at 8.1%, France at 17.2%, A…
- Challenge A (tail-market-england-ceiling-unearned): REJECTED. The South Africa upset (beat Canada) does NOT generalize to England's competitive ceiling. SA is not a host nation; Canada is not on England's path; England vs Congo DR is a materially different matchup class. The half-discount delta (Eng…
- Challenge B (tail-france-structural-premium-over-earned): REJECTED, but the argument inverts. France full market-implied delta (0.2013) gives France 21.54% title prob; structural delta (0.15) gives 18.04%. The mixture's france_enhanced world lands France at ~17.0% in the final mixture, which is ALRE…
- Challenge C (tail-spain-discount-anatomy): REJECTED. The Spain vs England opponent-conditional strength delta is -0.32pp (vs 0.476pp floor, vs_floor=0.67): the pairing-mismatch component is simulation noise, below floor. The this scenario Spain discount (-0.0835) is confirmed to be primarily injury/fo…
- Mixture spread (vs parameter floor): England vs_floor=1.90 (9.5pp width vs 5.0pp floor) - adequate world-driven width. France vs_floor=3.48 (18.8pp vs 5.4pp) - the france_enhanced axis earns the widest world spread. Spain vs_floor=1.25. Argentina vs_floor=0.88 (width is primarily parameter noise, co…
- Registered: (england_r32_day19_corrected). Five worlds unchanged: this scenario 0.25 / this scenario 0.38 / france_enhanced 0.20 / england_rb_r32only 0.07 / england_rb_through_r16 0.10. Full factor_audit and branch_audit attached. England 8.1%, France 17.2%, Argentina 17.9%, Spain 13.4%, Braz…
