Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France leads the forecast, backed by squad depth and World Cup pedigree that our ratings alone undervalue.
17.1% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The de-vigged market prices France well above our ratings model's p90 ceiling. We add a structural camp for squad depth and the 2018 and 2022 tournament record, but land deliberately below market at 17.1%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the full market premium is structural or driven by bookmaker positioning. The Deschamps disruption scenario has been formally closed.
France leads the forecast, backed by squad depth and World Cup pedigree that our ratings alone undervalue.
17.1% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The de-vigged market prices France well above our ratings model's p90 ceiling. We add a structural camp for squad depth and the 2018 and 2022 tournament record, but land deliberately below market at 17.1%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the full market premium is structural or driven by bookmaker positioning. The Deschamps disruption scenario has been formally closed.
