Forecast @ 28 June 17:27 ET (Round of 32)
41m 11s runtime · $4.21
France lead at 20.4% on squad depth and WC pedigree, Argentina second at 17.3% after a perfect group stage. England fourth at 8.5% with right-back cover uncertainty heading into knockouts. Germany discounted by model and market; Spain face winger injury concerns but remain third on our ratings from international results.
- France0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- Spain0.0%
- England0.0%
- Brazil0.0%
- Portugal0.0%
- Netherlands0.0%
- Colombia0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 7.0%Market 6.0%+1.0pp above
Neymar returned off the bench vs Scotland confirming fitness to feature, but his starter status for the knockouts remains uncertain. Our international-results ratings place Brazil above their market price, but a strength discount in the market-based world narrows this gap. No standalone Neymar world was opened as the evidence fell near the noise floor.
Our forecast 12.3%Market 11.0%+1.3pp above
Spain's two starting wingers both carry moderate-severity injuries with uncertain availability for the knockout phase. This deficit earns a small strength discount in the market-based world. Spain remain a top-three contender on raw squad quality and tactical depth despite the injury concern.
Our forecast 20.4%Market 21.5%-1.1pp below
France's EUR 1300M squad, 2018 title and 2022 final appearance put them well above our international-results ratings alone. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin also places them near 21.5%, and our mixture lands close to that. The manager rejoined the squad after a personal absence, confirmed before the knockout phase, restoring full continuity.
Our forecast 3.9%Market 2.4%+1.5pp above
Colombia drew 0-0 with Portugal and qualified. Our ratings give them higher raw strength than the betting market does after removing margin, which explains the gap. The market-based world applies a discount to bring the mixture toward market consensus.
Our forecast 8.5%Market 10.8%-2.3pp below
Reece James and Quansah are both out for the R32. Our forecast splits England's path across right-back scenarios: one where James returns before the Round of 16 and one where he remains sidelined through that stage, the latter confirmed as increasingly likely by recent reporting. England sit roughly 2pp below the de-vigged market because our ratings discount them slightly and the right-back scenarios apply stage penalties.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 25%International-results ratings
- 38%Betting market consensus
- 22%France structural premium
- 15%England right-back uncertainty
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
France lead the field, backed by squad depth, WC pedigree and the manager's confirmed return for the knockouts.
20.4% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
France's EUR 1300M squad, 2018 title and 2022 final appearance put them well above our international-results ratings alone. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin also places them near 21.5%, and our mixture lands close to that. The manager rejoined the squad after a personal absence, confirmed before the knockout phase, restoring full continuity.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.World Cup 2026: Mohamed Salah a doubt for Egypt's last-32 tie with hamstring injury - BBC Sportcitedbbc.com
- 2.World Cup 2026: England through, Scotland wait and Spain hit by injuries – as it happened | World Cup 2026 | The Guardiancitedtheguardian.com
- 3.England’s right-back problems deepen with Jarell Quansah likely to miss DR Congo tie | England | The Guardiancitedtheguardian.com
- 4.Spain’s Nico Williams hits out at ‘completely unnecessary’ Uruguay tackle that injured him | Spain | The Guardiancitedtheguardian.com
- 5.England’s Reece James ruled out for at least two games with hamstring injury | World Cup 2026 | The Guardiancitedtheguardian.com
- 6.Spain’s Yeremy Pino avoids collarbone fracture, Nico Williams suffers groin injury - The Athleticcitednytimes.com
- 7.World Cup injury tracker: Neymar, Mohamed Salah and Reece James updates | The Independentcitedindependent.co.uk
- 8.Why is Didier Deschamps not managing France tonight? | FourFourTwocitedfourfourtwo.com
- 9.Fact Check: Is Neymar Injured Again? Viral Training Video Reignites Concerns Ahead Of FIFA World Cup Knockouts | WATCHcitedsundayguardianlive.com
- 10.2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage - Wikipediaciteden.wikipedia.org
- 11.World Cup 2026: Declan Rice set to start for England against DR Congo - BBC Sportbbc.com
- 12.FIFA World Cup 2026 – Every match result on Sunday 28 June – Live scoresolympics.com
- 13.Messi sets World Cup record with 6 group stage goals in 2026 tournamentcryptobriefing.com
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
Reference audit complete at 50k sims (noise floor 0.404pp). The France structural gap (-11.9pp model vs market) is confirmed far outside the model's p10-p90 parameter band (6.0%-11.7%), driven by squad value EUR 1300M, WC pedigree (2018 champion, 2022 runner-up), and a hard path draw; france_enhance…
- Noise floor: 0.404pp (50k sims, seed=42).
- France gap (-11.9pp): structural and outside model p10-p90 band (6.0%-11.7%). Implied delta +0.208 produces +11.98pp title delta. Supported by squad value EUR 1300M, WC KO pedigree, 4-0 Germany away (NL 2025), Norway group result persisted (9 pts, 10GF 2GA). Both bookmaker and Polymarket legs agree…
- England RB deficit (/): Stage-conditional r32 delta -0.07 => -0.35pp, BELOW floor 0.404pp. England's market gap (-4.29pp) is the material axis, handled in this scenario via +0.107 implied delta. england_load_tail world COLLAPSED; England treatment absorbed into this scenario.
- Spain winger deficit (): Stage-conditional r32 delta -0.10 => -0.62pp, marginally ABOVE floor. Market already prices Spain at -4.39pp below model (Spain p10=11.0%, market=11.04%). Winger deficit MERGED into this scenario Spain discount (-0.077); no standalone spain_discount world needed.
- Germany discount: market-implied delta -0.111 => -3.30pp title delta vs floor 0.404pp. MATERIAL. Sustains Germany discount in this scenario and this scenario (prior Schlotterbeck world valid).
2Step 2
England mixture registered as (england_focus_mixture). England title probability: 8.79% (mixture mean 8.32%, p10 4.46%, p90 12.90%, width 8.4pp = 1.88x parameter floor). Four candidate branches priced: England RB exposure earns its own world (england_rb_tail, 0.15 weight); Spain winger d…
- BRANCH PRICING TABLE (noise floor 0.264pp at 50k sims, seed=42)…
- br-england-rb-exposure: r32 delta -0.428pp (ABOVE floor 0.264pp) + r16 delta -0.494pp (ABOVE floor). Both stages material. New evidence: (Quansah ankle likely out) + (James increasingly unlikely for RoF16). Earns england_rb_tail world at weight 0.15, overlaying this scenario perturba…
- br-spain-winger-deficit: r32 delta -0.74pp (ABOVE floor). Led-0003/0013: Williams groin moderate + Pino AC sprain moderate. Material but co-moves with this scenario Spain inversion (-0.078 delta); MERGED into this scenario (same directional read; standalone world would double-count the market's Spain di…
- br-salah-egypt-rof32: Egypt title prob ~0.2%; -0.20 stage-conditional at r32 produces only -0.06pp (BELOW floor 0.264pp). Led-0004: confirmed hamstring strain, but Egypt too far from title contention. REJECTED below floor; confirmed-but-immaterial.
- br-messi-argentina-knockout-form: Argentina market gap -0.9pp (model 18.3% vs market 19.2%), within noise 0.264pp. Group results already in baseline. Stage-conditional +0.05 produces -0.10pp simulation noise artifact. Led-0008: REJECTED; no independent forward mechanism survives pricing.
