Forecast @ 25 June 08:35 ET (Groups)

36m 40s runtime · $3.99

Spain lead at 15.3%, with France second and Argentina third. England sit fifth at 7.4%, below the betting market, because granting France its structural premium compresses England -- both cannot be at market ceiling together. A KO-phase load tail for Reece James and Saka adds honest width. Seven new group results are already in the bracket simulations.

% win WC

Spain0.0%
France0.0%
Argentina0.0%
Portugal0.0%
England0.0%
Brazil0.0%
Netherlands0.0%
Germany0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 5.6%Market 5.4%+0.2pp above
Germany's model baseline is reduced by Nico Schlotterbeck's confirmed tournament-ending ankle injury sustained against Ivory Coast. Both the this scenario and this scenario worlds carry this discount, and the market also prices Germany below our model.
Our forecast 14.4%Market 18.6%-4.2pp below
The betting market prices France near 18.7%, roughly 10pp above our international-results model. We grant about two-thirds of that gap across the france_enhanced world (24% weight) and the this scenario world (32%). France's R16 path is hard -- Germany is the likely opponent in over 80% of bracket draws.
Our forecast 7.4%Market 11.0%-3.6pp below
The betting market prices England at 11.0%. We partially close that gap via the this scenario world (32% weight). Granting France its structural premium crowds out England: both cannot be at market ceiling simultaneously. The england_load_tail world (8% weight) adds honest downside width for Reece James's hamstring and Saka's achilles tracking into the knockouts.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

30%Using international-results ratings
32%Using full betting market consensus
24%France structural premium partially credited
8%England KO-phase load tail
6%Spain model surplus corrected toward market

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain lead the field from our international-results ratings.

15.3% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Spain rate highest on our model despite the betting market pricing them below France. Their model surplus over the market was partially corrected in the mixture but the model anchor remains strong. Path difficulty is already priced in the bracket simulations.

Using full betting market consensusBetting market after removing bookmaker margin; full France and England premiums applied across seven teams.

32%

Using international-results ratingsPure model ratings from international results with Germany KO discount; no market premium applied.

30%

France structural premium partially creditedFrance market gap partially treated as structural club-form advantage; no new ledger football evidence so weight reduced from prior run.

24%

England KO-phase load tailJames hamstring and Saka achilles risk through knockout rounds; stage-conditional penalty priced for width.

Spain model surplus corrected toward marketSpain model rating discounted toward market; gap inside parameter band so weight is small.

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
Two-base reference read complete (50k sims, seed 42, 54/72 results persisted). Four gaps are structurally OUTSIDE the model p10-p90 band and require explicit world treatment in the mixture: France (-10.12pp, market 18.7% vs model p90 11.1%), England (-4.85pp, market 11.0% vs p90 8.1%), Germany (+3.7…
- BASELINE (50k sims, 54/72 played): Spain 17.1%, Argentina 14.7%, Germany 9.1%, Portugal 9.1%, France 8.8%, Brazil 8.0%, England 6.1%, Netherlands 5.8%, Colombia 4.5%, Norway 3.2%…
- DE-VIGGED MARKET: France 18.66%, Spain 14.01%, Argentina 13.82%, England 11.00%, Portugal 7.45%, Brazil 5.74%, Germany 5.38%, Netherlands 5.54%, Colombia 1.59%…
- GAP TABLE: France -10.12pp OUTSIDE [5.2%,11.1%] impl_delta=+0.184 STRUCTURAL | England -4.85pp OUTSIDE [4.3%,8.1%] impl_delta=+0.127 STRUCTURAL | Germany +3.77pp OUTSIDE [6.0%,11.8%] impl_delta=-0.118 STRUCTURAL (market below p10) | Colombia +3.02pp OUTSIDE [2.8%,9.0%] impl_delta=-0.171 STRUCTURAL (…
- INSIDE BAND (width only): Spain +2.95pp [p10=11.1%, market=14.0%] impl_delta=-0.063 | Brazil +2.45pp [p10=5.0%, market=5.7%] impl_delta=-0.072 | Portugal +1.36pp impl_delta=-0.039 | Argentina +0.68pp impl_delta=-0.010…
- ENGLAND PATH: Group-winner prob 82.1% (easier r32: Congo DR/Senegal); runner-up 17.9% (hard r32: Portugal/Colombia). r32 advance 72.4%, QF 42.5%, SF 23.5%, Final 12.2%, Champion 6.1%. Likely QF: Brazil (43%), Norway (23%), France (11%). Likely SF: Argentina (42%). Panama group game (Match 67, June 2…
2Combining the competing worlds
England mixture registered (artifact ). Mixture England title: 7.53% (p10=4.1%, p90=11.6%, width 7.6pp, 1.38x parameter floor). France 14.91%, Spain 15.21%, Argentina 13.98%, Brazil 7.33%, Germany 5.72%. Four worlds carried from prior run with two weight changes: france_enhanced raised 0.
- MIXTURE: this scenario 0.30 / this scenario 0.30 / france_enhanced 0.28 / spain_discount 0.12; all weights sum to 1.0. Noise floor 0.336pp (20k sims per world).
- ENGLAND: mixture 7.53% (p10=4.1%, p90=11.6%, width 7.6pp at 1.38x parameter floor). Prior run 8.5%; reduction reflects updated 50k baseline England 6.06% vs prior 6.1%, and france_enhanced world (w=0.28) giving England only 5.73% via France uplift consuming probability mass.
- ENGLAND GAP: -4.85pp (market 11.0% vs model 6.06%), structural OUTSIDE p90=8.07%. Implied delta 0.127. Fully priced in this scenario world (30% weight) granting England ~11.1%. No separate England axis: the this scenario world already closes this gap by construction.
- FRANCE GAP: -10.12pp (market 18.66% vs model 8.80%), structural OUTSIDE p90=11.10%. Implied delta 0.184. france_enhanced grants partial credit at delta=0.127 mean (sd=0.04), 69% of implied gap. Weight raised from 0.25 to 0.28. Hard likely R16 path (Germany/Brazil) prevents full grant.
- GERMANY GAP: +3.75pp (model 9.13% vs market 5.38%), structural OUTSIDE p10=6.0%. Schlotterbeck tournament-ending injury () is MATERIAL at -1.47pp for Germany at -0.04 strength delta. Combined with prior KO discount, this scenario Germany total is -0.10 mean delta (sd 0.03). Merged into model_ba…
3Re-pricing after challenge
Corrected mixture () registered with 5 worlds. France path verified HARD (Germany 83.5% likely in R16, not QF -- critic's factual claim was wrong). France weight reduced 0.28->0.24 (no new ledger football evidence for club-form/depth beyond market consensus). England KO-load tail priced a…
- FRANCE PATH (Q1): Critic claim FACTUALLY WRONG. team_path_tree confirms Germany is France's R16 opponent in 83.5% of slot-89 worlds (58% slot probability), and Brazil is the R16 opponent in 64.8% of slot-91 worlds (21% slot probability). Combined probability of a top-3 opponent in R16 = 62.2%. Franc…
- FRANCE WEIGHT (Q1 continued): Weight reduced 0.28->0.24. The hard R16 path is already modeled in sims (France advance_given_play in R16 = 56.1%, depressed by tough opponents), so it does not independently justify INCREASING the weight beyond the structural gap argument. No ledger entry supports the…
- ENGLAND KO LOAD TAIL (Q2): Priced as new world england_load_tail (weight 0.08) via StageConditionalStrength -0.07 in R32 and R16. run_scenario(seed=42, 30k sims) confirms -0.64pp title drag at P=1.0; England QF reach drops 4.08pp, SF drops 2.31pp. James (, ): confirmed hamstring risk…
- RECONCILIATION (Q3): England mixture 7.59% vs market 11.0% (gap -3.4pp). This is a directional but EARNED stance: (a) this scenario gives 6.1% at 30% weight; (b) this scenario gives 11.1% at 32% weight; (c) france_enhanced depresses England to 5.7% at 24% weight (France consuming probability mass). The m…
- MIXTURE SPREAD: England mean=7.45%, p10=4.1%, p90=11.7%, width=7.6pp, floor=5.5pp, vs_floor=1.38x. Width is earned (1.38x floor) from model/market disagreement axis plus england_load_tail world. France mean=14.70%, width=16.0pp, vs_floor=2.45x (strong france_enhanced axis). Spain vs_floor=0.93x (ins…