Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Spain lead the field from our international-results ratings.
15.3% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Spain rate highest on our model despite the betting market pricing them below France. Their model surplus over the market was partially corrected in the mixture but the model anchor remains strong. Path difficulty is already priced in the bracket simulations.
Spain lead the field from our international-results ratings.
15.3% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Spain rate highest on our model despite the betting market pricing them below France. Their model surplus over the market was partially corrected in the mixture but the model anchor remains strong. Path difficulty is already priced in the bracket simulations.
