Forecast @ 24 June 06:36 ET (Groups)

35m 15s runtime · $3.61

Spain lead our ratings at 15.1%, with Argentina second at 14.0% and France third at 13.5%. England are fourth at 8.5%, heading into the Panama finale with Saka fit and on a deliberate load-management schedule after the 0-0 with Ghana. Portugal are fifth at 8.4%. Four worlds balance the international-results model against the betting market, a partial France structural premium, and a Spain market correction.

% win WC

Spain0.0%
Argentina0.0%
France0.0%
England0.0%
Portugal0.0%
Brazil0.0%
Netherlands0.0%
Germany0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 5.3%Market 5.5%-0.1pp below
All four worlds in our mixture carry a Germany knockout discount, backed by a multi-tournament Elo analysis. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin also prices Germany below their model strength, and both legs agree. No new evidence this run changes that read.
Our forecast 15.1%Market 14.1%+1.1pp above
Our international-results ratings place Spain as the strongest side in the tournament. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin prices Spain below our model by about 1pp, and a dedicated world at 15% weight corrects toward that market view. Spain lead because no new on-pitch evidence has shifted the core ratings and bracket difficulty is already inside the simulations.
Our forecast 13.5%Market 18.6%-5.1pp below
Our international-results ratings put France well below the betting market consensus. A dedicated France structural-premium world at 25% weight partially grants that gap, reflecting club-form and squad-depth advantages the international-results model may miss. The residual gap above our mixture is treated as market sentiment rather than confirmed structural quality.
Our forecast 8.5%Market 11.2%-2.7pp below
Bukayo Saka's Achilles recovery follows a deliberate load-management schedule. Both sources confirm he is pain-free and expected to start against Panama. The 0-0 with Ghana reflects planned minutes management rather than a fitness concern. Our international-results ratings see England below the betting market; the market-facing worlds narrow that gap. Residual uncertainty about whether the managed approach extends into knockouts is covered by the mixture width.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

30%Using international-results ratings
30%Using full market consensus
25%France structural premium partially credited
15%Spain model surplus corrected toward market

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain lead our forecast, rated highest by the international-results model.

15.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our international-results ratings place Spain as the strongest side in the tournament. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin prices Spain below our model by about 1pp, and a dedicated world at 15% weight corrects toward that market view. Spain lead because no new on-pitch evidence has shifted the core ratings and bracket difficulty is already inside the simulations.

Using full market consensusBetting market after removing bookmaker margin; full France and England premiums applied.

30%

Using international-results ratingsPure model ratings from international results with Germany KO discount; no market premium applied.

30%

France structural premium partially creditedFrance market gap partially structural; club-form and depth partially credited beyond pure sentiment.

25%

Spain model surplus corrected toward marketSpain model rating discounted toward market; bracket difficulty already in simulations.

15%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
England mixture title probability 8.8% (p10 4.5%, p90 12.8%, width 8.3pp, 1.53x parameter floor). Three candidate branches priced: eng-tactical collapsed below floor (-0.08pp vs 0.30pp floor), brazil-raphinha carried forward (-1.14pp, 4.4x floor), colombia-portugal collapsed (future fixture, Portuga…
- England mixture title probability: 8.8% (mean), p10=4.5%, p90=12.8%, width=8.3pp, vs_floor=1.53x. World-by-world: this scenario 6.0%, this scenario 10.2%, france_partial 10.2%, brazil_net 6.1%, spain_discount 6.4%.
- branch-eng-tactical: COLLAPSED. MatchRatePerturbation on Panama fixture (match 67) yields England title delta -0.08pp vs 0.30pp noise floor. The England 0-0 Ghana result is already absorbed in the baseline (played group-stage result). Saka Achilles management is a match-specific sub appearance, not…
- branch-brazil-raphinha: CARRIED FORWARD as brazil_net world (weight 0.15). wq.impact: Brazil -1.14pp (4.4x noise floor, noise floor 0.26pp). Evidence confirmed: Raphinha absent with hamstring, Neymar sub-only, Rayan teenage replacement. Same perturbation as prior run (mean=-0.04, sd=0.02) is appropr…
- branch-colombia-portugal: COLLAPSED. The Group K winner/runner-up fixture is future and bracket effects are already priced in the baseline sims. Portugal's model-market gap is +1.0pp (near floor). Colombia's large implied delta (-0.155) reflects a persistent structural model-market disagreement on C…
- France structural gap: CONFIRMED STILL HOLDS. Model 8.8% vs market 18.4%; model p90 under parameter uncertainty = 11.0%. Market exceeds model p90 by ~7.4pp, making the gap structural rather than noise. france_partial world (France to blend ~13.1%) retained at weight 0.20. France mixture mean = 13.3%…