Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Spain lead our forecast, rated highest by the international-results model.
15.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our international-results ratings place Spain as the strongest side in the tournament. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin prices Spain below our model by about 1pp, and a dedicated world at 15% weight corrects toward that market view. Spain lead because no new on-pitch evidence has shifted the core ratings and bracket difficulty is already inside the simulations.
Spain lead our forecast, rated highest by the international-results model.
15.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our international-results ratings place Spain as the strongest side in the tournament. The betting market after removing bookmaker margin prices Spain below our model by about 1pp, and a dedicated world at 15% weight corrects toward that market view. Spain lead because no new on-pitch evidence has shifted the core ratings and bracket difficulty is already inside the simulations.
