Forecast @ 23 June 05:45 ET (Groups)

25m 40s runtime · $2.87

Spain leads our forecast at 16.7%, France second at 15.7%, Argentina third at 14.2%. Our ratings from international results favour Spain, while the betting market prices France highest; we blend both views. Brazil is discounted for Raphinha's confirmed hamstring absence and Neymar's uncertain Scotland return. Argentina and France both confirmed group form with wins on June 22.

% win WC

Spain0.0%
France0.0%
Argentina0.0%
England0.0%
Brazil0.0%
Portugal0.0%
Germany0.0%
Netherlands0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 5.1%Market 5.7%-0.5pp below
All our camps carry a discount for Germany's track record of underperforming in knockout rounds relative to their Elo-implied strength. The market also prices Germany below our model estimate, reinforcing the discount.
Our forecast 16.7%Market 13.9%+2.8pp above
Our ratings from international results place Spain as the strongest team in the field, though the betting market prices France higher. We apply a modest discount to Spain's model surplus toward the market consensus, and Lamine Yamal has returned from his hamstring injury and is available, though he was substituted at half-time against Saudi Arabia as a precaution.
Our forecast 15.7%Market 19.0%-3.3pp below
The betting market, after removing bookmaker margin, prices France at 18.97%, well above our model estimate. We partially credit this premium across the market-facing camps but cap it at a blend, treating the residual as market sentiment. Mbappe scored twice in the 3-0 win over Iraq. France faces Norway on June 26 in a high-leverage group decider.
Our forecast 9.3%Market 12.5%-3.2pp below
The betting market prices England at 12.45%, above our model estimate. We partially credit this gap via the market-facing camps. Saka is confirmed available after his Achilles concern, and Tino Livramento's tournament-ending calf injury has like-for-like cover with near-zero impact on England's title odds.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

25%Using international-results ratings
30%Using full market consensus pricing
20%France premium partially credited
15%Brazil injury adjustment
10%Spain model surplus corrected toward market

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain leads our forecast at 16.7% on the strength of our international-results ratings.

16.7% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our ratings from international results place Spain as the strongest team in the field, though the betting market prices France higher. We apply a modest discount to Spain's model surplus toward the market consensus, and Lamine Yamal has returned from his hamstring injury and is available, though he was substituted at half-time against Saudi Arabia as a precaution.

Using full market consensus pricingBetting market after removing bookmaker margin; both legs agree within 0.53pp on France. Full France structural premium applied.

30%

Using international-results ratingsPure model ratings from international results; no market premium applied. Sets lower bounds for England and France, upper bound for Spain.

25%

France premium partially creditedFrance market premium capped at a blend of model and market; residual gap treated as sentiment rather than structural quality.

20%

Brazil injury adjustmentNet Brazil strength adjustment for Raphinha confirmed out and Neymar uncertain for Scotland; applied in addition to baseline model.

15%

Spain model surplus corrected toward marketSpain model rating discounted toward market consensus; bracket path is harder than average so no additional bracket correction added.

10%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
Gap and branch audit complete. France 10.21pp gap is structural (market 18.97% vs p90 10.32%), both legs agree, france_partial and this scenario carry forward unchanged. England 5.34pp gap is weakly structural (only 1.4pp outside p90); Ghana leverage and Livramento absence are below meaningful materia…
- FRANCE GAP (10.21pp): Model 8.76% vs market 18.97%. Gap is OUTSIDE the model p10-p90 band [5.26%, 10.32%] -- structurally contested. Both market legs agree within 0.53pp. Implied delta for full market = +0.187 log-goals units; blend implied delta = +0.156. France squad value 1300M EUR (rank 1), stre…
- ENGLAND GAP (5.34pp): Model 7.11% vs market 12.45%. Gap is OUTSIDE p10-p90 [4.28%, 11.06%] by only 1.4pp -- weakly structural. Implied delta = +0.134 log-goals units. Path tree: England wins Group L 91.8% of the time; Ghana game has England at 75.9% win probability, and even a Ghana-wins scenario co…
- NORWAY BRANCH (branch-norway-underpriced): COLLAPSE. Model 2.98% already EXCEEDS market 2.72% by 0.26pp -- model already overprices Norway. Posterior strength update from 3-2 win over Senegal = +0.0194 delta, title impact = +0.32pp, BELOW noise floor of 0.512pp. Norway's 6pts, Haaland brace, 18-matc…
- BRAZIL ATTACKER CRISIS (branch-brazil-attacker-crisis): MATERIAL RESIDUAL. Prior brazil_net world prices Raphinha confirmed out + Neymar partial return at net -0.04 delta (title impact -1.304pp). Full crisis scenario (both out for knockouts) requires -0.09 delta, with title impact -2.612pp. Residual…
- NOISE FLOOR: 0.512pp at 50k sims. All deltas reported against this floor. England-Ghana loss scenario (-0.528pp) and Livramento (-0.700pp) both barely clear the floor but carry mechanism caveats (bracket positioning and squad depth respectively) that argue against full weighting.
2Step 2
England mixture registered at 9.46% title probability (mixture mean 9.11%, p10 4.72%, p90 14.79%, vs_floor 1.95x -- width is genuinely earned). Four branches adjudicated: Norway collapsed below floor (+0.32pp title impact from posterior update, model already above market); England Saka/Livramento br…
- England title probability: 9.46% (mixture mean 9.11%, p10 4.72%, p90 14.79%); width 10.1pp is 1.95x the parameter floor -- earned width, not padding.
- branch-norway-underpriced: COLLAPSED. Posterior strength update from 3-2 Senegal win is +0.0194 log-goal units; title impact +0.32pp is below the 0.512pp noise floor. Model already prices Norway at 3.16% above market 2.72%. Ryerson injury is a squad-depth RB near-zero per mechanism. Bracket effect i…
- branch-saka-role-england: COLLAPSED. Livramento () is a squad-depth right-back with like-for-like cover; gross title impact -0.712pp clears floor mechanically but per field guide mechanism the effective delta is near-zero. Saka confirmed fit () resolves previously unpriced uncertaint…
- branch-brazil-attacker-crisis: PRICED in brazil_net. Raphinha confirmed hamstring out () contributes -1.148pp gross title impact; priced at -0.04 net delta in brazil_net world. No separate world added -- it shares the Brazil availability axis with the Neymar branch.
- branch-neymar-availability-brazil: PRICED in brazil_net. Neymar upgraded from partial training () to first full training session expected for Scotland (); this is a POSITIVE update reducing crisis probability. Downside ~25% Neymar-miss scenario absorbed in DeltaDistribution sd=0.02 (…