Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Spain leads our forecast at 16.7% on the strength of our international-results ratings.
16.7% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our ratings from international results place Spain as the strongest team in the field, though the betting market prices France higher. We apply a modest discount to Spain's model surplus toward the market consensus, and Lamine Yamal has returned from his hamstring injury and is available, though he was substituted at half-time against Saudi Arabia as a precaution.
Spain leads our forecast at 16.7% on the strength of our international-results ratings.
16.7% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our ratings from international results place Spain as the strongest team in the field, though the betting market prices France higher. We apply a modest discount to Spain's model surplus toward the market consensus, and Lamine Yamal has returned from his hamstring injury and is available, though he was substituted at half-time against Saudi Arabia as a precaution.
