Forecast @ 22 June 03:04 ET (Groups)

33m 24s runtime · $3.91

Spain lead our ratings at 16.7%, France second at 13.6% -- a spread earned by our international-results model rating Spain higher than the betting market does, while capping France's market price at a blend. Argentina sit third at 12.4%. Brazil fall to 6.5% after Raphinha's confirmed thigh injury; Neymar's return to training offers a partial offset, leaving a net strength discount.

% win WC

Spain0.0%
France0.0%
Argentina0.0%
England0.0%
Brazil0.0%
Germany0.0%
Portugal0.0%
Netherlands0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 6.3%Market 5.5%+0.7pp above
Our ratings put Germany among the stronger teams, but both market legs price them below the raw model figure. An Elo discount is applied across all worlds reflecting their historical pattern of underperforming in knockout rounds. The result is broadly in line with market consensus.
Our forecast 13.6%Market 19.6%-6.0pp below
The betting market has France as a heavy favourite, with bookmakers and Polymarket agreeing to within 0.01 percentage points. Our ratings from international results imply a lower figure. The mixture splits the France premium: one world grants the full market price, one caps it at a blend, and the model base holds the lower figure.
Our forecast 9.5%Market 12.6%-3.1pp below
The market prices England above our international-results model. The mixture carries the market-implied uplift in the two market-facing worlds (50% combined weight) and the model's lower figure in the pure model base (25% weight). Bukayo Saka is confirmed in training but unlikely to start versus Ghana, preserving rather than changing the picture.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

25%Using international-results ratings
30%Using market consensus pricing
20%France premium partially credited
15%Brazil injury adjustment
10%Spain model surplus corrected

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain lead the field on our ratings despite the market placing them behind France.

16.7% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our ratings from international results place Spain above the market consensus. The 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia is consistent with that strength. Both betting markets agree Spain sits below our model, so a discount world runs at 10% weight to partially close the gap. Spain remain our top-rated team but the discount narrows the lead over Argentina and France.

Using market consensus pricingBetting market after removing bookmaker margin; both legs agree within 0.01pp on France. Full France structural premium applied.

30%

Using international-results ratingsPure model ratings from international results; no market premium applied. Sets lower bounds for England and France, upper bound for Spain.

25%

France premium partially creditedFrance market premium capped at blend between model and market; treats residual 3pp as sentiment rather than structural quality.

20%

Brazil injury adjustmentNet Brazil strength adjustment: Raphinha confirmed out, Neymar return partially offsets. Applied in addition to baseline model.

15%

Spain model surplus correctedSpain model rating discounted toward market; bracket path is harder than average so no additional bracket correction warranted.

10%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Combining the competing worlds
Registered mixture artifact (four worlds: this scenario 0.35, this scenario 0.35, france_partial 0.15, brazil_net 0.15). England mixture mean 9.53% (p10 5.4%, p90 14.1%), France 13.63%, Spain 17.21%. Prior portugal_structural world collapsed; brazil_cascade rebuilt as brazil_net with Neymar r…
- BASELINE (): Spain 18.05%, England 7.48%, France 8.45%, Brazil 6.87%. Noise floor 0.22pp (50k sims).
- PRIOR WORLD AUDIT -- this scenario (0.30): CARRIES FORWARD, weight raised to 0.35 (Portugal structural collapsed, weight redistributed). -- this scenario (0.30): CARRIES FORWARD, weight raised to 0.35 (same redistribution). -- france_partial (0.15): CARRIES FORWARD unchanged; France gap still -11.26pp, b…
- BRA-001 PRICING: Raphinha confirmed out for Scotland, no return timeline (/) -- impact -1.48pp (DeltaDist -0.06 sd 0.02, floor 0.22pp, MATERIAL). Neymar return to full training June 22 (/) -- impact +1.77pp (DeltaDist +0.04 sd 0.02, floor 0.22pp, MATERIAL). Net Brazil…
- BEL-001 ADJUDICATION: Belgium 0-0 Iran + red card () is a played result already fixed in simulator baseline. Red card affects only bracket outcome. No posterior strength signal from a single 0-0 vs Iran with 10 men that is separate from the already-in-base result. Belgium model 3.38% vs mark…
- JPN-001 ADJUDICATION: Japan 4-0 Tunisia already in simulator baseline as bracket state. Model-market gap -0.28pp (Japan model 1.76% vs market 2.04%) is BELOW the 0.22pp noise floor. STATUS: BELOW FLOOR, collapsed.
2Re-pricing after challenge
Four branches adjudicated and corrected mixture registered as (5 worlds: this scenario 0.25, this scenario 0.30, france_partial 0.20, brazil_net 0.15, spain_discount 0.10). England structural uplift collapsed (no ledger anchor, prior run's path-mechanics conclusion upheld). France weight rais…
- ENGLAND (branch eng-structural): COLLAPSED. The +0.1219 strength delta in 's this scenario is the market-implied price on the model-vs-market axis, NOT a separately justified structural uplift. Prior run (agent-20260621) concluded England = pure path/bracket mechanics with zero strength res…
- FRANCE (branch france_full_structural): PRICED AND WEIGHT RAISED. Both legs agree within 0.01pp (bookmakers 19.61%, Polymarket 19.62%, legs_disagree -0.01pp, /). Full premium impact +11.5pp (floor 0.22pp). Blend impact +8.97pp. Incremental full-vs-blend = +2.53pp, above floor. The st…
- SPAIN (branch spain_model_surplus): PRICED, NEW WORLD ADDED. Spain model 18.05% vs market 14.03% = +4.05pp surplus. Both legs agree (bookie gap 4.05pp, poly gap 4.32pp, legs_disagree only 0.27pp). Implied delta -0.0585. Impact -3.53pp (floor 0.22pp, MATERIAL). Spain 4-0 Saudi result () alrea…
- ARGENTINA (branch argentina_intraleg): BELOW FLOOR, COLLAPSED. Polymarket 11.77% vs bookmaker 11.04% = -0.73pp intra-leg divergence, largest among major contenders. The delta in strength units is 0.0032. wq.impact yields 0.038pp title impact, BELOW the 0.22pp noise floor. No Argentina world warrante…
- MIXTURE SPREAD: France vs_floor 3.14x (earned width from France axis). England 1.35x (above floor, model-vs-market axis). Spain 0.97x (near floor, model and spain_discount partly cancel). Argentina 0.99x (parameter noise only). Brazil 0.78x (below floor -- brazil_net perturbation is small -0.04 net)…
3Step 3
All three unaudited branches closed; structure preserved unchanged as . (1) argentina_legs_divergence: intra-leg strength delta 0.0032 strength units, title impact 0.16pp against a 1.01pp noise floor -- COLLAPSED. Polymarket (11.77%) is above bookmakers (11.04%) on Argentina…
- (1) ARGENTINA legs_divergence COLLAPSED: intra-leg strength delta 0.0032 strength units, title impact 0.16pp vs 1.01pp noise floor. Polymarket 11.77% > bookie 11.04% reflects retail popularity bias on a favorable group draw, NOT a structural path/KO-resilience read. No Argentina posterior strength w…
- (2) BRAZIL neymar_overdisc COLLAPSED: / both carry proposed_delta=0.0 for Neymar return; Neymar partial offset was ALREADY netted into brazil_net when built it (-0.04 net vs ~-0.08 without him). Neymar has not played since October 2023 ACL rupture; elevated conditioning ris…
- (3) SPAIN bracket_edge MERGED_INTO_BASE: path_difficulty=1.173 (above-average difficulty; r32=1.24, r16=1.19, sf=1.48, final=1.52 -- Spain's bracket is harder than average). The 4.05pp model-vs-bookie surplus is a strength calibration gap, not a bracket advantage. Existing spain_discount world (-0.0…
- Mixture-004 registered (artifact ): 5 worlds unchanged from . England 9.56% (vs_floor 1.35x, model-vs-market axis preserved). France 14.02% (3.14x, earned width). Spain 16.79% (0.97x, straddles model-market gap). Argentina 12.86% (0.99x). Brazil 6.29%. Noise floor 0.346pp.
- Axis note: Candidate axes considered: (a) argentina_legs_divergence -- below floor (0.16pp vs 1.01pp), collapsed; (b) brazil_neymar_overdisc -- no ledger anchor for change (proposed_delta=0.0), market more bearish, collapsed; (c) spain_bracket_edge -- path difficulty above average (1.173), no struct…