Forecasting the winner of the World Cup

Archive forecast 22 June 03:04 ET

Spain lead the field on our ratings despite the market placing them behind France.

16.7% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our ratings from international results place Spain above the market consensus. The 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia is consistent with that strength. Both betting markets agree Spain sits below our model, so a discount world runs at 10% weight to partially close the gap. Spain remain our top-rated team but the discount narrows the lead over Argentina and France.

Using market consensus pricingBetting market after removing bookmaker margin; both legs agree within 0.01pp on France. Full France structural premium applied.

30%

Using international-results ratingsPure model ratings from international results; no market premium applied. Sets lower bounds for England and France, upper bound for Spain.

25%

France premium partially creditedFrance market premium capped at blend between model and market; treats residual 3pp as sentiment rather than structural quality.

20%

Brazil injury adjustmentNet Brazil strength adjustment: Raphinha confirmed out, Neymar return partially offsets. Applied in addition to baseline model.

15%

Spain model surplus correctedSpain model rating discounted toward market; bracket path is harder than average so no additional bracket correction warranted.

10%

1 in 1Spain are world champions

Spain lead the field on our ratings despite the market placing them behind France.

16.7% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Using market consensus pricingBetting market after removing bookmaker margin; both legs agree within 0.01pp on France. Full France structural premium applied.

30%

Using international-results ratingsPure model ratings from international results; no market premium applied. Sets lower bounds for England and France, upper bound for Spain.

25%

France premium partially creditedFrance market premium capped at blend between model and market; treats residual 3pp as sentiment rather than structural quality.

20%

Brazil injury adjustmentNet Brazil strength adjustment: Raphinha confirmed out, Neymar return partially offsets. Applied in addition to baseline model.

15%

Spain model surplus correctedSpain model rating discounted toward market; bracket path is harder than average so no additional bracket correction warranted.

10%

Forecasting the winner of the World Cup

Archive forecast 22 June 03:04 ET

Spain lead the field on our ratings despite the market placing them behind France.

16.7% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Using market consensus pricingBetting market after removing bookmaker margin; both legs agree within 0.01pp on France. Full France structural premium applied.

30%

Using international-results ratingsPure model ratings from international results; no market premium applied. Sets lower bounds for England and France, upper bound for Spain.

25%

France premium partially creditedFrance market premium capped at blend between model and market; treats residual 3pp as sentiment rather than structural quality.

20%

Brazil injury adjustmentNet Brazil strength adjustment: Raphinha confirmed out, Neymar return partially offsets. Applied in addition to baseline model.

15%

Spain model surplus correctedSpain model rating discounted toward market; bracket path is harder than average so no additional bracket correction warranted.

10%

1 in 1Spain are world champions