Forecast @ 21 June 02:59 ET (Groups)

1Step 1

Three candidate branches adjudicated. Only brazil-injury-cascade survives as a priced strength perturbation at -1.124 pp (above the 0.386 pp noise floor); spain-group-h-bracket-risk is merged into base as the bracket state is already conditioned on in the simulator; belgium-group-g-stumble collapses…

• ·BRANCH AUDIT TABLE: brazil-injury-cascade STATUS=priced, delta=-1.124 pp, floor=0.386 pp. MECHANISM: Raphinha's in-tournament hamstring injury () is the only new information not already embedded in fitted strength. Pre-tournament absences of Rodrygo, Estevao, Militao and Wesley () ar…
• ·BRANCH AUDIT TABLE: spain-group-h-bracket-risk STATUS=merged-into-base, delta=0.0 pp, floor=0.386 pp. MECHANISM: explicitly carries proposed_delta=0.0. The three-way level Group H table is bracket and path STATE, not a surprise result implying a Spain strength revision. The baseline simulat…
• ·BRANCH AUDIT TABLE: belgium-group-g-stumble STATUS=collapsed, delta=-0.128 pp, floor=0.386 pp. MECHANISM: Doku's illness () expires 2026-06-22, making this strictly a single-match absence for the Belgium vs Iran fixture (match 39). A MatchRatePerturbation on match 39 with home_goals_delta=-0…
• ·METHODOLOGY NOTE: update_from_result was NOT applied to any played result (Brazil 3-0 Haiti, Spain 0-0 Cabo Verde etc.) because the brief requires checking whether a result is genuinely surprising before invoking a strength update; none of these results are sufficiently surprising relative to model…
• ·CROSS-CHECK: Brazil's baseline title probability is 7.74% vs market 6.10%, a 1.64 pp gap. The priced -1.124 pp cascade perturbation would bring Brazil to approximately 6.6%, narrowing but not fully closing the gap. This is coherent: the market may also see tactical concerns or path difficulty that t…

2Step 2

Reference frame audit complete. England's -3.0pp baseline drift (10.77% to 7.77%) is entirely path/bracket mechanics with zero residual strength read. All four prior worlds carry forward at unchanged weights (0.35/0.35/0.15/0.15). Three material model-vs-market gaps identified: France (-10.6pp), Eng…

• ·MARKET GAPS TODAY (Jun 21 06:31 UTC): France model=8.95% vs market=19.55% (-10.6pp, wider than prior 9.18pp); England model=7.77% vs market=12.79% (-5.02pp); Germany model=9.30% vs market=5.60% (+3.70pp). These are the three material structural disagreements.
• ·FRANCE GAP (-10.6pp) -- ARGUED-DISAGREEMENT: Market case: Mbappe-era squad depth (EUR1300M), Deschamps tournament experience, club-player quality not visible in international-results model; France hasn't played a WC match so model cannot update toward squad premium. Model case: France record include…
• ·ENGLAND GAP (-5.02pp) -- ARGUED-DISAGREEMENT: Model case: fitted strength 1.5039 (rank 6), international results-based. Market case: highest squad value in tournament (EUR1500M), Bellingham/Rice/Saka club quality structurally missing from international-results model. Prior +0.085 squad-value perturb…
• ·GERMANY GAP (+3.70pp) -- ARGUED-DISAGREEMENT: Model case: strong qualification results (Slovakia 6-0, Bosnia 7-0, Slovakia discounted at 0.057 pull-share) producing fitted strength 1.515. Market case: Elo trajectory crashed from 2133 (2014) to 1910 (2025), consistent knockout underperformance post-2…
• ·ENGLAND PATH DECOMPOSITION: The -3.0pp baseline drift from prior run (10.77% to 7.77% unperturbed) is 100% bracket/path mechanics. Per-stage conditional advance rates all declined: R32 -3.0pp, R16 -4.9pp, QF -4.3pp, SF -4.3pp, final -3.5pp. England's Croatia win was already absorbed into baseline, l…

3Step 3

England's -3.23pp baseline drift from the prior forecast (10.77% to 7.54%) is 100% bracket/path mechanics: England's fitted strength (1.5039) is unchanged across both runs and the win vs Croatia yields only a +0.017 posterior mean delta (negligible vs prior_sd 0.122). All per-stage advance probabili…

• ·DECOMPOSITION TABLE: England baseline drift 10.77% (prior) to 7.54% (now) = -3.23pp total. (a) Path/bracket mechanics: -3.23pp. (b) Residual strength update: 0.00pp. England fitted strength = 1.5039 in both runs, unchanged.
• ·PER-STAGE PATH DRIFT (prior vs now): R32 -0.15pp, R16 -3.56pp, QF -5.22pp, SF -5.32pp, Final -4.46pp, Champion -3.23pp. The hardening is concentrated in QF onward where Brazil (27%), France (16%), Norway (17%) are likely opponents.
• ·CROATIA WIN STRENGTH UPDATE: posterior_mean_delta = +0.017, posterior_sd = 0.121 vs prior_sd = 0.122. Delta is 0.04x the noise floor after conversion -- effectively zero. Cannot serve as a standalone strength world.
• ·MODEL-VS-MARKET GAP: Model 7.54% vs bookmakers 12.79% = -5.25pp (13.6x noise floor). Polymarket 12.26%, gap -4.72pp. Both legs agree directionally (legs_disagree only 0.53pp). Gap is structural and material.
• ·AFTER SQUAD-VALUE CORRECTION (+0.085): England rises to 11.29%. Residual vs blend (11.37%) = -0.08pp (0.2x floor, below floor). Residual vs raw market = -1.50pp (3.9x floor) -- attributable to bookmaker sentiment premium.

4Combining the competing worlds

Registered artifact (five worlds: this scenario 0.30, this scenario 0.30, france_partial 0.15, brazil_cascade 0.15, portugal_structural 0.10). Brazil injury cascade (: Raphinha hamstring) is priced as a new world at weight 0.15, delta -0.847pp vs floor 0.430pp, material. France spread…

• ·MIXTURE ARTIFACT: registered with five worlds -- this scenario 0.30, this scenario 0.30, france_partial 0.15, brazil_cascade 0.15, portugal_structural 0.10. Total weight = 1.00.
• ·PRIOR WORLD AUDIT: this scenario reweighted 0.35->0.30 (carry with reweight; same perturbations, England+0.085 and Germany-0.046 retained; reduced to fund brazil_cascade). this scenario reweighted 0.35->0.30 (carry with reweight; France+0.1691 premium, England+0.085, Germany-0.046 retained). france_parti…
• ·BRAZIL CASCADE WORLD (new): Raphinha confirmed hamstring out vs Scotland (); R16+ absence risk. Quant-001 priced StrengthPerturbation(team=brazil, delta=DeltaDist(mean=-0.03,sd=0.015)) at -1.124pp (floor 0.386pp). Cross-check this run: delta=-0.847pp, floor=0.430pp -- both confirm material.
• ·CANDIDATE AXES CONSIDERED: (1) Brazil injury cascade -- survived pricing, earned own world (0.15). (2) Spain Group H bracket risk -- rejected/merged into base; proposed_delta=0.0; bracket state conditioned on in simulator (). (3) Belgium Group G stumble -- collapsed below floor; Ma…
• ·MIXTURE SURFACE (top teams): Spain 14.8%, France 12.3%, Argentina 12.3%, England 10.8%, Brazil 6.9%, Germany 6.8%, Portugal 6.3%, Netherlands 5.5%, Colombia 5.1%.

5Step 5

Mixture-003 registered with five worlds identical to except the brazil_cascade perturbation is widened to DeltaDist(mean=-0.05, sd=0.025). France weights confirmed correct; England double-count confirmed absent. All three pre-mortem tails priced and resolved.

• ·Q1 FRANCE SENTIMENT VS STRUCTURE: Market gap France is -10.6pp. Decomposition: blend-implied structural premium = 16.69% - 8.48% (baseline) = 8.21pp; pure sentiment above blend = 19.55% - 16.69% = 2.86pp (26% of total gap). Simulation confirms: this scenario world (delta=0.169) gives France 17.37%; fr…
• ·Q2 BRAZIL EXTENDED CASCADE: Base cascade impact (DeltaDist mean=-0.03, sd=0.015) = -1.21pp vs 0.488pp floor (2.5x, material). Extended cascade scenario (delta=-0.08) gives -2.61pp (5.3x floor). Decision: widen brazil_cascade to DeltaDist(mean=-0.05, sd=0.025) -- spans -0.03 to -0.08 within 2 sigma -…
• ·Q3 ENGLAND DOUBLE-COUNTING: Confirmed no double-count. The +0.085 squad-value correction is structural: it closes the model-vs-blend gap ( confirmed this brings England from 7.54% to ~11.29%, within noise of blend 11.44%). In this scenario, England is carried at blend level (+0.085 above mode…
• ·MIXTURE-003 SURFACE: Spain 14.77%, Argentina 12.34%, France 11.88%, England 11.02%, Portugal 6.89%, Germany 6.76%, Brazil 6.68%, Netherlands 5.56%, Colombia 5.09%. Five worlds: this scenario 0.30, this scenario 0.30, france_partial 0.15, brazil_cascade (widened) 0.15, portugal_structural 0.10.
• ·MIXTURE SPREAD VS FLOOR: France 2.13x (widest; France gap drives width -- intended), Spain 1.27x, Portugal 1.08x, Colombia 1.02x, Brazil 1.00x, England 0.98x, Germany 0.89x, Argentina 0.86x, Netherlands 0.85x. Noise floor 0.344pp. France width 12.80pp is clearly above floor. Brazil width 6.30pp is m…