Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Archive forecast 21 June 02:59 ET
Spain leads the field in this forecast.
14.3% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Fitted international-results strength puts Spain at the top. Group H is competitive with Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia all level on one point after matchday 1, and the bracket paths are already reflected in the simulator.
Granting France the full market premiumDe-vigged bookmaker consensus after margin removal. France full premium granted; England squad-value correction retained.
30%
Using our international-results ratingsWeighted international match results, with England squad-value correction and Germany Elo discount. Cannot price bookmaker sentiment on France.
30%
France earns only the defensible club-quality upliftFrance premium capped at club-quality signals; residual market sentiment not granted.
15%
Brazil injury cascadeConfirmed Raphinha absence and cumulative squad attrition price a meaningful title-probability drag on Brazil.
15%
Portugal structural quality premiumPortugal structural quality premium for club-level talent not fully reflected in international-results ratings.
10%
1 in 1Spain are world champions
Spain leads the field in this forecast.
14.3% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Fitted international-results strength puts Spain at the top. Group H is competitive with Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia all level on one point after matchday 1, and the bracket paths are already reflected in the simulator.
Granting France the full market premiumDe-vigged bookmaker consensus after margin removal. France full premium granted; England squad-value correction retained.
30%
Using our international-results ratingsWeighted international match results, with England squad-value correction and Germany Elo discount. Cannot price bookmaker sentiment on France.
30%
France earns only the defensible club-quality upliftFrance premium capped at club-quality signals; residual market sentiment not granted.
15%
Brazil injury cascadeConfirmed Raphinha absence and cumulative squad attrition price a meaningful title-probability drag on Brazil.
15%
Portugal structural quality premiumPortugal structural quality premium for club-level talent not fully reflected in international-results ratings.
10%
