Forecast @ 19 June 09:15 ET (Groups)

31m 22s runtime · $3.68

Spain lead at 15.1%, France rise to 12.9% as our analysis raises the weight on their structural squad advantage, England hold at 11.2% on a club-quality uplift our international-results ratings do not fully capture. The live uncertainty is whether France's 9-point gap over our ratings reflects real squad depth or partly sentiment. Saka rests vs Ghana as a confirmed fitness call with no tournament-wide effect.

% win WC

Spain0.0%
France0.0%
Argentina0.0%
England0.0%
Brazil0.0%
Germany0.0%
Portugal0.0%
Colombia0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 6.5%Market 5.7%+0.8pp above
All camps apply a discount to Germany, reflecting an Elo trend that puts their tournament ceiling below their fitted strength from results alone. The market at 5.75% sits below our mixture, consistent in direction.
Our forecast 12.9%Market 18.4%-5.5pp below
Our ratings alone put France well below the market. The gap is larger than our model's own parameter uncertainty, making it structural. Our four camps span the full range of views: the model camp holds France at its rated level, the market camp grants the full depth premium, the France-axis camp caps the uplift at the defensible club-quality component. The mixture lands at 12.9%, still 5.4 points below the de-vigged market.
Our forecast 11.2%Market 12.6%-1.4pp below
Bellingham, Rice and the broader Premier League core carry club-quality signals that international results alone understate. An uplift across all camps closes most of the gap to the 12.6% consensus. Saka will not start against Ghana on June 23 as Tuchel manages his Achilles, but our analysis confirmed this is a single-match call with no evidence of broader rotation risk.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

35%Using our international-results ratings
35%Granting France the full market premium
15%France earns only the structural club-quality uplift
15%Portugal attacking cohesion drag retained

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain lead at 15.1% despite their 0-0 draw with Cape Verde.

15.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our international-results ratings place Spain at the top of the field. The draw and midfield concerns are absorbed into the refit baseline; the market sits 1.5 points below our mixture. Yamal's return for the Saudi Arabia match is the next signal to watch.

Granting France the full market premiumDe-vigged bookmaker consensus after margin removal. France's full structural gap granted; England squad-value premium retained.

35%

Using our international-results ratingsWeighted match results from internationals, with England squad-value correction and Germany Elo discount. Cannot price bookmaker sentiment on France.

35%

France earns only the structural club-quality upliftFrance premium capped at defensible club-quality component; residual market sentiment not granted. Honest weight for the possibility that sentiment drives part of France's market price.

15%

Portugal attacking cohesion drag retainedPortugal's group draw treated as a possible structural signal; drag applied across the remaining bracket. Weight 15% as market has absorbed most of the signal.

15%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
Day 9 two-reference audit complete. Noise floor is 0.464pp. England's -3.46pp baseline drift since June 18 is entirely bracket/path mechanics absorbed in the refit baseline -- no Group L result has been played, so no posterior strength update is warranted. The squad-value proxy (+0.085 Delta…
- NOISE FLOOR: 0.464pp (50k sims, seed=42). Floor multiples below are all vs this threshold.
- ENGLAND DRIFT: -3.46pp baseline drift (11.23% June 18 -> 7.77% June 19). Attribution: 100% bracket/path mechanics absorbed in refit baseline. No Group L result played. Reach has compressed across all rounds: r16 76.0->72.7%, qf 52.2->43.9%, sf 32.5->26.0%, final 19.6->14.9%, champ 11.2->8.0%. No upd…
- ENGLAND SQUAD PROXY: +0.085 DeltaDist(sd=0.015) gives +3.91pp title delta, 8.43x floor. CARRY FORWARD. Explains 3.91 of 4.85pp model-market gap; residual 0.94pp is near floor. Prior this scenario used +0.067 (2.68pp, 5.78x) -- upgrading to +0.085 is defensible as the calibrated estimate. No Gro…
- / FRANCE GAP: Model 9.21% vs market 18.3%, gap 9.09pp, 5.89pp outside model p90 of 12.41% -- structural gap, not parameter noise. Partial premium (+0.05): +2.03pp, 4.37x floor. Full market premium (+0.165): +8.93pp, 19.24x floor. CARRY BOTH AXES as france_partial and this scenario worlds…
- GERMANY DISCOUNT: Model 9.13% vs market 5.75%, gap 3.36pp. Prior Elo discount (-0.046) gives -1.81pp at 3.9x floor -- CARRY inside this scenario. Full market discount (-0.093) would give -3.24pp at 6.98x floor but no new Germany result justifies escalation. Hold at -0.046.
2Step 2
All three candidate branches collapse. Spain midfield dysfunction: the draw bracket effect (-1.85pp, 3.98x floor) is already in the refit baseline; the additional dysfunction signal (, probable) prices at -1.69pp (2.01x effective floor after magnitude uncertainty) but the market has already…
- BRANCH-SPAIN-MIDFIELD-DYSFUNCTION: COLLAPSE. Bracket effect of Spain 0-0 draw (-1.85pp, 3.98x floor) is already absorbed in refit baseline and is not a separable priceable delta. Additional dysfunction signal (, probable, expires 2026-06-22) prices at -1.69pp with DeltaDist(mean=-0.025, sd=0…
- BRANCH-MEXICO-HOST-UNDERPRICED: COLLAPSE. Hypothesis fails on data: market consensus is 1.54%, model is 0.95% -- market is already 0.59pp ABOVE model for Mexico, opposite of the underpriced claim. Mexico positive delta (+0.05 DeltaDist) prices at +0.20pp, 0.24x floor -- well below noise floor. Home…
- BRANCH-GROUP-C-MOROCCO-PATH: COLLAPSE pending results. Scotland vs Morocco not yet played as of scan; branch rests on an unresolved conditional. Morocco r32 advance rate only 45.9% due to hard bracket (Netherlands 40.6%, Sweden 33.9%, Japan 24.5% of r32 opponents). Morocco positive delta +0.70pp at…
- ENGLAND DRIFT -3.46pp: 100% bracket/path mechanics. Mexico's confirmed group qualification () hardened England's projected R16 slot: Mexico is now 65.8% most likely R16 opponent in Match 92 slot (67.9% weight). This hardens each subsequent round: QF opponents include Brazil/France/Norway rat…
- ENGLAND MODEL vs MARKET: Model 7.86% vs market 12.62%, gap -4.76pp. De-vigged market is the closer reference. Squad-quality proxy (+0.085 DeltaDist, +3.91pp, 8.43x floor) from accounts for most of the gap, leaving ~0.85pp residual near floor. England squad value is a model-invisible mechan…
3Combining the competing worlds
Mixture registered () with four worlds: this scenario(0.40), france_partial(0.30), this scenario(0.20), portugal_structural(0.10). England mixture title probability is 11.2% (p10 7.4%, p90 15.3%, vs_floor 1.22x). France is the dominant axis at 11.8% mean (p10 6.3%, p90 19.0%, vs_floor 1.97x) r…
- PRIOR WORLD LIFECYCLE: this scenario CARRIED with weight 0.30->0.40 (England delta upgraded 0.067->0.085 per calibration; Portugal collapse freed 0.10 weight to model anchor). this scenario CARRIED at 0.20 (France full premium +0.165 at 19.24x floor). france_partial CARRIED at 0.30 (France +0.0…
- CANDIDATE AXES CONSIDERED: (1) France premium axis -- SURVIVES as france_partial vs this scenario split; 9.09pp gap structural, 5.89pp outside model p90, earns two worlds. (2) England squad-value axis -- MERGED INTO ALL WORLDS at +0.085 DeltaDist (8.43x floor, explains 3.91pp of 4.76pp model-market ga…
- SAKA LED-0008 PRICING: MatchRatePerturbation match 45 (home_goals_delta=-0.25): England title delta -0.062pp vs noise floor 0.464pp (0.13x floor). Confirmed below floor. Mechanism correctly scoped as single missed fixture, not a tournament-long StrengthPerturbation. Folded into branch_audit as below…
- ENGLAND DRIFT (-3.46pp): 100% bracket mechanics (Mexico R16 slot hardened to 65.8% probability; reach compressed r16 76->72.7%, qf 52.2->43.9%, sf 32.5->26.0%, final 19.6->14.9%). No Group L result played, no update_from_result applied. Not a standalone world.
- MIXTURE SPREAD: England 11.2% mean, p10 7.4%, p90 15.3%, width 7.9pp, vs_floor 1.22x (earned, above parameter noise). France 11.8% mean, p10 6.3%, p90 19.0%, width 12.7pp, vs_floor 1.97x. Germany 6.9% mean, vs_floor 0.81x (Elo discount moves all worlds similarly). Mixture artifact registered as mixt…
4Re-pricing after challenge
Corrected day-9 mixture () registered after resolving all four critic challenges. England +0.085 squad premium survives the sweep: at +0.050 the gap vs market widens to 2.50pp (5.39x floor), at +0.065 it is 1.70pp (3.66x floor), only at +0.085 does it fall to 0.85pp (1.83x floor) within t…
- ENGLAND SQUAD PREMIUM SWEEP: +0.050 => +2.26pp (4.87x floor, 10.12% title, -2.50pp vs market); +0.065 => +3.06pp (6.59x floor, 10.92%, -1.70pp); +0.085 => +3.91pp (8.43x floor, 11.77%, -0.85pp); +0.10 => +4.47pp (9.64x floor, 12.33%, -0.29pp). Decision: +0.085 SURVIVES. It is the calibrated estimate…
- SAKA SYSTEMIC-PROXY TEST: is specifically Achilles-management (Tuchel's explicit statement). No ledger evidence for Rice/Bellingham rotation. The Saka absence was already priced as MatchRatePerturbation (0.13x floor, immaterial in ). The hypothesis that Saka absence signals broader…
- FRANCE AXIS RESOLUTION: france_partial (+0.05 DeltaDist) => France 11.41% (6.89pp below market); this scenario (+0.165 DeltaDist) => France 18.30% (at market). Current France was 11.69% (6.61pp below market) due to 0.30 france_partial weight. The 9.09pp France gap is 5.89pp outside model p…
- ENGLAND RESIDUAL TAIL: The 0.85pp residual at +0.085 is 1.83x floor. A +0.10 world would double-count the DeltaDist distribution (which already prices +0.10 at the upper 1sd tail). No independent mechanism beyond squad quality justifies +0.10 as a new world central estimate. VERDICT: residual is noi…
- MIXTURE SPREAD CHECK: England vs_floor=1.22 (width earned), France vs_floor=2.27 (France axis is dominant uncertainty as expected). Noise floor 0.384pp. England band 7.9pp overlaps yesterday's 7.2-14.8 range (continuity maintained).