Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Spain lead at 15.1% despite their 0-0 draw with Cape Verde.
15.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our international-results ratings place Spain at the top of the field. The draw and midfield concerns are absorbed into the refit baseline; the market sits 1.5 points below our mixture. Yamal's return for the Saudi Arabia match is the next signal to watch.
Spain lead at 15.1% despite their 0-0 draw with Cape Verde.
15.1% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our international-results ratings place Spain at the top of the field. The draw and midfield concerns are absorbed into the refit baseline; the market sits 1.5 points below our mixture. Yamal's return for the Saudi Arabia match is the next signal to watch.
