Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Archive forecast 15 July 03:00 ET
Spain are the clear favourites after eliminating France 2-0 in the semifinal.
61.5% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our ratings and the betting market now agree within noise on Spain's number, so no premium is added either way; they lead every version of our forecast on the strength of that result alone.
Using our results-based ratingsThe fitted results-based rating, with the Spain-France semifinal result already absorbed, and no market input.
60%
Assuming England's market price reflects a real strength edgeThe de-vigged betting market's read, carried only as England's residual gap after removing the bracket-shape effect of a market-implied semifinal advance rate.
40%
1 in 1Spain are world champions
Spain are the clear favourites after eliminating France 2-0 in the semifinal.
61.5% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our ratings and the betting market now agree within noise on Spain's number, so no premium is added either way; they lead every version of our forecast on the strength of that result alone.
Using our results-based ratingsThe fitted results-based rating, with the Spain-France semifinal result already absorbed, and no market input.
60%
Assuming England's market price reflects a real strength edgeThe de-vigged betting market's read, carried only as England's residual gap after removing the bracket-shape effect of a market-implied semifinal advance rate.
40%
