Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
France are the clear favourites at 40.8% to win it all.
40.8% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The betting market rates France well above our results-based ratings, seeing Mbappe and Tchouameni fit and rating France's ceiling higher than a pure results model does. We blend both readings, weighted mostly toward the market view, since the gap is structural rather than noise.
France are the clear favourites at 40.8% to win it all.
40.8% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
The betting market rates France well above our results-based ratings, seeing Mbappe and Tchouameni fit and rating France's ceiling higher than a pure results model does. We blend both readings, weighted mostly toward the market view, since the gap is structural rather than noise.
