Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Spain lead our forecast at 15.5% despite a 0-0 draw against Cabo Verde in their opening match.
15.5% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Spain's model rating still places them as the strongest side in the tournament; the Cabo Verde draw is a single group result that does not alter the underlying strength estimate. Their path through Group H and likely knockout bracket keeps the ceiling high. The de-vigged betting market at around 13.5% sits below our published number, partly because the draw updated sentiment faster than a full-tournament strength estimate warrants.
Spain lead our forecast at 15.5% despite a 0-0 draw against Cabo Verde in their opening match.
15.5% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Spain's model rating still places them as the strongest side in the tournament; the Cabo Verde draw is a single group result that does not alter the underlying strength estimate. Their path through Group H and likely knockout bracket keeps the ceiling high. The de-vigged betting market at around 13.5% sits below our published number, partly because the draw updated sentiment faster than a full-tournament strength estimate warrants.
