Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Spain lead at 15.9%, still first despite Yamal and Williams fitness doubts.
15.9% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Spain remain highest on the fitted-model camp at about 17.6%, while the market-informed camp is nearer 15.2%. Fitness concerns for Yamal and Williams trim the early-group attack case, but Spain remain clear enough across both views to stay top.
Spain lead at 15.9%, still first despite Yamal and Williams fitness doubts.
15.9% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Spain remain highest on the fitted-model camp at about 17.6%, while the market-informed camp is nearer 15.2%. Fitness concerns for Yamal and Williams trim the early-group attack case, but Spain remain clear enough across both views to stay top.
