Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Archive forecast 13 June 10:56 ET
Spain are the favourites, with Rodri fit and Yamal back from injury.
16.2% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Rodri is back at full fitness and Yamal has recovered from injury, so nothing this week weakens Spain. Our ratings put them at 18% and the market at 16%, both clear of the field, and we land at 16%.
Using market oddsDe-vigged bookmaker consensus prices for the seven leading contenders blended in; captures market information but cannot separate signal from bookmaker margin.
75%
Fitted simulationUnperturbed Poisson model fit to historical international results with confirmed tournament results in the overlay; sees long-run objective strength but not market information.
25%
1 in 1Spain are world champions
Spain are the favourites, with Rodri fit and Yamal back from injury.
16.2% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Rodri is back at full fitness and Yamal has recovered from injury, so nothing this week weakens Spain. Our ratings put them at 18% and the market at 16%, both clear of the field, and we land at 16%.
Using market oddsDe-vigged bookmaker consensus prices for the seven leading contenders blended in; captures market information but cannot separate signal from bookmaker margin.
75%
Fitted simulationUnperturbed Poisson model fit to historical international results with confirmed tournament results in the overlay; sees long-run objective strength but not market information.
25%
