Forecast @ 20 July 02:41 ET (Final)
10m 7s runtime · $1.71
Spain are champions. They beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the July 19 final, with Ferran Torres scoring the winner and Enzo Fernandez sent off for Argentina. England's tournament ended with a semi-final loss to Argentina and a 4-6 defeat to France in the third-place match. With every match played, our forecast now simply reports the result: Spain 100%.
% win WC
- Spain0.0%
- Czechia0.0%
- Korea Republic0.0%
- Mexico0.0%
- South Africa0.0%
- Bosnia and Herzegovina0.0%
- Canada0.0%
- Qatar0.0%
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.Human rights body questions World Cup integrity - APapnews.com
- 2.Spain battle past 10-man Argentina 1-0 in extra-time to win 2026 World Cupaljazeera.com
- 3.Predictmarketcap - World Cup winner marketpredictmarketcap.com
- 4.FIFA World Cup integrity questioned by European rights body | AP Newsapnews.com
- 5.Lionel Messi in tears, future unclear after World Cup final loss - ESPNespn.com
- 6.Spain's persistence pays off to win 2026 World Cup as Messi, Argentina exit quietly - ESPNespn.com
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
Registered a single settled-state mixture (artifact , resolved_2026_worldcup_champion) putting Spain at 100.0% title probability, confirmed by both the champion-simulation baseline and wq.mixture_spread. The prior two-world pre-final blend (this scenario 0.55 / this scenario 0.45, Spain 58.1%…
- Tournament fully complete (104/104 matches); champion-simulation baseline returns Spain at 100.0% title probability with all other teams at 0.0%, matching the resolved market (Polymarket leg fully settled to Spain=1.0).
- Prior pre-final blend (this scenario 0.55 Spain 60.8%, this scenario 0.45 Spain 54.7%, combined 58.1%/41.9% Spain/Argentina) is collapsed by the played final result, not carried forward: that uncertainty no longer exists once Spain beat Argentina 1-0 AET on 2026-07-19.
- wq.mixture_spread on the registered settled_champion world confirms mean=p10=p90=1.0 for Spain and 0.0 for all others, width_pp=0.0, exactly matching the parameter-only floor_width_pp=0.0 -- a settled tournament legitimately carries zero residual title uncertainty, so no vs_floor ratio is computable…
- England (focus team) were eliminated in the semi-final (lost 1-2 to Argentina, July 15) and lost the third-place playoff to France 4-6 (July 18); their title probability is a confirmed, settled 0%, not a modeled branch -- this should be reported as fact in England's team story, not as a probabilisti…
- No live football uncertainty remains post-tournament: no strength-update, availability, or market-disagreement worlds were built, per the node's brief, since the market has mechanically resolved to Spain=1.0 with no bookmaker leg remaining to disagree with the model.
