Forecast @ 11 July 06:24 ET (Quarter-finals)

24m 4s runtime · $4.46

England now stand at 15.2% for the title with the Rice, Guehi and James injury doubts cleared before the Norway quarterfinal, only Quansah missing through suspension. Our published view leans on the betting market for France, who lead the field, and blends it with our own results-based ratings, which actually favour Spain more than the market does. Argentina hold steady after Romero's issue was confirmed as cramp, not a real injury.

% win WC

France0.0%
Spain0.0%
Argentina0.0%
England0.0%
Norway0.0%
Switzerland0.0%
Czechia0.0%
Korea Republic0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 2.4%Market 1.8%+0.6pp above
Our ratings see Switzerland's chances a little higher than the market does; the published number leans toward the market's more cautious view given no fresh evidence to back a higher figure.
Our forecast 22.2%Market 21.4%+0.7pp above
Our international-results ratings actually rate Spain higher than France, but the betting market is far more cautious on Spain, and the published number blends both readings. The Belgium win itself is already built into those ratings and does not add a separate boost.
Our forecast 38.9%Market 38.3%+0.5pp above
The betting market has consistently rated France above our fitted results model, and the published number leans on that market view. A further discount applies because Tchouameni remains at risk for the semifinal with no fresh confirmation either way.
Our forecast 15.2%Market 15.3%-0.0pp below
Rice, Guehi and James all trained and are in contention, clearing the doubt that had weighed on England; only Quansah is missing through suspension. That recovery adds a modest, deliberately conservative bump over the market's own read, with extra width held for possible yellow-card losses before a semifinal.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

28%Using our results-based ratings
37%Using the betting market
20%Assuming Tchouameni's fitness stays unresolved
15%Assuming England's injury cluster is resolved

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

France lead the field, priced above our own ratings on market confidence and a lingering fitness question over Tchouameni.

38.9% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

The betting market has consistently rated France above our fitted results model, and the published number leans on that market view. A further discount applies because Tchouameni remains at risk for the semifinal with no fresh confirmation either way.

Using the betting marketThe bookmaker and exchange consensus with the margin stripped out.

37%

Using our results-based ratingsPure fitted strength from international results with no market or news adjustment.

28%

Assuming Tchouameni's fitness stays unresolvedStarts from the market view and adds a widened downside for France if their midfield depth is tested in the semifinal.

20%

Assuming England's injury cluster is resolvedStarts from the market view and adds a small, width-honoring lift for England now that Rice, Guehi and James have trained.

15%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
Registered (england_focus_20260711) with weights this scenario 0.28 / this scenario 0.37 / france_tchouameni_depth 0.20 / england_injury_resolved 0.15. Title probs: France 39.4%, Spain 21.8%, Argentina 16.6%, England 15.3%, Norway 4.7%, Switzerland 2.3%. England vs_floor=1.56 (band 10.9pp vs…
- Reference gap table (model vs market, vs 0.42pp floor): Spain +15.2pp, France -12.7pp, England -3.2pp, Argentina -0.9pp, Norway -0.6pp, Switzerland +2.1pp.
- england-injury-resolved: Rice/Guehi/James resolution priced at +1.255pp on England (floor 0.475pp), material; Quansah suspension priced at -0.175pp, sub-floor, immaterial.
- arg-defense-vulnerability collapsed: Romero cramp-only resolves the injury strand; the goals-conceded thesis is already absorbed in the fitted baseline and has no fresh market-invisible edge (hypothetical sensitivity test -2.51pp on Argentina, not published).
- france_tchouameni_depth carried unchanged (mean -0.032, sd 0.02): no new confirmation either way per evidence-002.
- Registered (england_focus_20260711): this scenario 0.28, this scenario 0.37, france_tchouameni_depth 0.20, england_injury_resolved 0.15. Title probs: France 39.4%, Spain 21.8%, Argentina 16.6%, England 15.3%, Norway 4.7%, Switzerland 2.3%.
2Step 2
Re-priced all three critic tails against their floors and re-registered a corrected mixture (, england_focus_20260711_corrected) keeping 's four worlds but widening the two contested worlds' magnitude uncertainty rather than shifting means, and rejecting the Spain tail as doubl…
- france_market_gap_unearned: full market-implied France delta (+0.1864) would move France +12.6pp, far above the 0.415pp floor, confirming the raw gap is structural, not noise -- correctly handled via this scenario. The current Tchouameni-depth haircut (mean -0.032, sd 0.02) is material at -1.485pp; a…
- over_anchored_england_injury_read: at mean 0.02/sd 0.015 the delta is +0.655pp (1.58x floor), material but thin, landing England at market's 15.3%. Recentring the mean down to 0.01 to honor the critic's downside concern drops the delta to +0.29pp, BELOW the floor -- that would erase real signal rath…
- spain_post_result_strength_underweight: Spain's model probability (36.7%) is essentially equal to the this scenario conditional (37.1%), confirming the Belgium win () is fully absorbed into the fitted baseline. A synthetic Spain upside test (+0.08/sd0.05) would move Spain +6.78pp, dwarfing the…
- mixture_spread on the corrected mixture: France mean 38.8% (p10 23.8, p90 49.6, vs_floor 2.5x), Spain mean 22.3% (vs_floor 2.08x), England mean 15.1% (band 11.0pp, vs_floor 1.57x, overlapping yesterday's 9.7-18.6pp band), Argentina mean 16.8% (vs_floor 1.06x, essentially at floor, no further branch…
- Weights unchanged from (this scenario 0.28, this scenario 0.37, france_tchouameni_depth 0.20, england_injury_resolved 0.15); only the two contested worlds' magnitude uncertainty (sd) was widened, keeping means where the floor test showed no confirmed fact justified a shift.
3Step 3
Re-registered 's exact four-world structure (this scenario 0.28, this scenario 0.37, france_tchouameni_depth 0.20, england_injury_resolved 0.15) as a fresh validator-clean artifact, (england_focus_20260711_reregistered), with zero deviation from 's title probabilities (m…
- Re-registered the identical structure as : same weights (this scenario 0.28, this scenario 0.37, france_tchouameni_depth 0.20, england_injury_resolved 0.15), same perturbations verbatim, same factor_audit and branch_audit reused unchanged (branch audit NOT re-opened per instruction…
- Team_stories coverage: computed per-world leaders directly from the registered conditionals -- this scenario leads with spain (37.1%), this scenario/france_tchouameni_depth/england_injury_resolved all lead with france (45.4%/43.2%/45.1%). Overall mixture leader is france (39.4%). Required team_stories se…
- All four camp keys used in world_metadata are explicitly declared and unchanged from : model, market, france_depth, england_availability -- each with its own label/summary/branch_keys, satisfying the camp_missing check (the prior run's 'englan' truncation issue does not appear in this art…
- Market reconciliation: factor_audit's market_gap check (status checked) is carried unchanged from , explicitly reconciling france (+12.6pp full-market-implied vs floor), spain (+6.78pp synthetic upside rejected as double-counting the already-absorbed Belgium result), and england (market/m…
- Noise floor 0.334pp preserved and identical to /003 (same seed/method), confirming no drift was introduced by re-registration.