Forecast @ 4 July 06:28 ET (Round of 32)

27m 8s runtime · $3.45

France lead at 23.0%, well below the betting market's implied probability, as our ratings from international results find a large gap that only a partial squad-quality adjustment bridges. Spain second at 16.0%, Argentina third at 15.7%. Thuram and Tchouameni are both confirmed absent for France tonight vs Paraguay. Spain face Portugal on July 6, eliminating one major contender.

% win WC

France0.0%
Spain0.0%
Argentina0.0%
England0.0%
Portugal0.0%
Brazil0.0%
Colombia0.0%
Belgium0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 7.5%Market 6.5%+1.1pp above
Model rates Brazil above market, but a Paqueta fitness concern justifies a partial discount. Market sits slightly below our figure; the gap reflects both the injury and model-market disagreement.
Our forecast 16.0%Market 12.5%+3.5pp above
Pino's confirmed return restores winger depth, trimming Spain's prior discount. Williams remains off full training as of July 4 but is expected available, justifying a residual small discount. Spain's path through Portugal on July 6 is the key bracket risk; one of these two sides exits next.
Our forecast 23.0%Market 33.9%-10.8pp below
Our ratings from international results put France at 17.3% (model world). We grant a partial premium reflecting squad depth and club quality not captured in results alone. Thuram and Tchouameni are confirmed absent for tonight against Paraguay -- a match-specific cost already included. The remaining gap to the market reflects unresolved model-versus-market disagreement on France's true ceiling.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

28%Using international-results ratings
72%Using de-vigged betting market with squad adjustments

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

France lead the field but sit well below the betting market consensus, reflecting genuine model-versus-market disagreement on their squad quality.

23.0% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our ratings from international results put France at 17.3% (model world). We grant a partial premium reflecting squad depth and club quality not captured in results alone. Thuram and Tchouameni are confirmed absent for tonight against Paraguay -- a match-specific cost already included. The remaining gap to the market reflects unresolved model-versus-market disagreement on France's true ceiling.

Using de-vigged betting market with squad adjustmentsBookmaker consensus after removing margin, adjusted for confirmed injuries and availability; trusts market on factors our ratings cannot observe.

72%

Using international-results ratingsFitted from historical international results; does not see club-quality premia or squad depth beyond what results reveal.

28%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
France structural gap confirmed at -16.38pp (model 17.5% vs market 33.9%), outside the model's own p90 of 22.9%. Thuram+Tchouameni double absence prices at -0.88pp (above 0.298pp floor) but is match-specific only (expires 2026-07-04), marginally trimming the defensible tournament premium from DeltaD…
- France model-vs-market gap: model 17.52% vs market 33.9% = -16.38pp (vs -15.2pp yesterday). Market 33.9% sits ~11pp above the model's own p90 of 22.9%; gap is structural and persists.
- France title uncertainty band: p10=12.9%, p50=17.2%, p90=22.9%. Market price is outside the p90, confirming the gap is not model parameter noise.
- Thuram+Tchouameni double absence (confirmed, both expire 2026-07-04): MatchRatePerturbation on match 89 (France AWAY, away_goals_delta=-0.15, home_goals_delta=+0.10) yields France -0.88pp, Paraguay +0.05pp, noise floor 0.298pp. Match-specific impact is ABOVE the floor and material for tonight.
- Tournament-long premium argument: absences are R16-only (Thuram 'may return for QF'). Prior DeltaDist(0.12,0.05) partial premium is defensible but should be trimmed modestly to DeltaDist(0.10,0.05) given tonight's confirmed double absence, not eliminated.
- branch-france-odds-too-high: PRICED. Match-level absence delta -0.88pp clears floor. Tournament premium trim from 0.12 to 0.10 mean recommended. Branch survives as a pricing input, not a standalone world.
2Combining the competing worlds
Registered (this scenario 0.28 / this scenario 0.72). All four candidate branches were adjudicated per computation: branch-france-odds-too-high merged into this scenario as a premium trim (DeltaDist 0.12 to 0.10); branch-paraguay-upset-france collapsed below floor (posterior +0.026pp…
- Registered artifact: (two-world: this scenario 0.28, this scenario 0.72).
- Prior worlds carried with targeted updates: France premium trimmed DeltaDist(0.10,0.05) from 0.12 per Thuram+Tchouameni R16 double absence; Spain discounted reduced to DeltaDist(-0.05,0.02) from -0.09 after Pino confirmed fit and Williams probable per evidence-002; Brazil DeltaDist(-0.12,0…
- branch-france-odds-too-high: MERGED INTO this scenario. Market case (EUR1300M squad, club quality not in rated results) vs model case (Thuram+Tchouameni -0.88pp match-specific, above floor 0.262pp). Absences are R16-only (expire 2026-07-04). Premium trimmed 0.12 to 0.10 inside existing stance; full ga…
- branch-paraguay-upset-france: BELOW FLOOR. Paraguay posterior update +0.026pp sub-floor (floor 0.262pp). Bracket state already conditioned in baseline. update_from_result not applied to a played result. No separately justified France strength update clears the floor.
- branch-morocco-dark-horse: COLLAPSED. Model already rates Morocco above market (3.30% vs 2.54%, +0.76pp). Netherlands-win posterior sub-floor. No underpricing edge identified.
3Step 3
Three critic tails adjudicated with computation; mixture re-registered as (artifact: mixture-france-gap-critic-tails-v3, 2 worlds, this scenario 28% / this scenario 72%, noise floor 0.262pp). France 23.39%, England 7.79%, Spain 15.80%.
- (1) france-absence-structural-elasticity: COLLAPSED. Sustained strength delta test at -0.10 gives France -5.548pp, Spain +1.492pp, England +0.602pp, Argentina +0.720pp (all above floor 0.298pp). At -0.15 sustained: France -7.636pp, Spain +2.190pp. BUT the structural-into-QF scenario has no confirmed…
- (2) england-subfloor-gap-unearned: PRICED and RECONCILED. England implied_delta=+0.0194 to bridge model 7.08% to market 7.78%. Impact of that delta: +0.772pp on England title probability (above floor 0.298pp). The -0.70pp gap in was unearned noise with no named mechanism. Prior england_r…
- (3) paraguay-upset-dark-horse-world-collapse-mechanic: CONFIRMED BELOW FLOOR. Baseline conditions on Paraguay bracket state (Germany upset already persisted). Paraguay title baseline 0.458% vs market 0.16%, gap +0.298pp exactly at (not above) floor. Collapse is mechanically correct and not missing w…
- Mixture spread: France vs_floor=1.84 (well above, width earned by model-market gap), England vs_floor=1.13 (above floor, width earned by England reconciliation + model-market blend), Spain vs_floor=1.01 (at floor, appropriate for two partially-offsetting forces), Brazil vs_floor=1.24. All key teams…
- Axis note: Two worlds (this scenario/this scenario) retained. France absence structural tail collapsed to distribution within existing premium. England gap added as small reconciliation perturbation (+0.0194) in this scenario, merging into that world because it co-moves with the market-informed view (no in…
4Step 4
Re-registered as (artifact id: , file: mixture-france-gap-branch-audit-v4.json) with an explicit branch_audit covering all four branch_ids from evidence-001. Worlds and weights are unchanged: this scenario 0.28 / this scenario 0.72. France title probability is 23.39% (i…
- Registered artifact: (mixture-france-gap-branch-audit-v4.json), 2 worlds, this scenario 0.28 / this scenario 0.72 -- identical to .
- France title: 23.39% ( was 23.4% -- within simulation noise, unchanged).
- Noise floor: 0.262pp -- unchanged from .
- France mixture_spread vs_floor = 1.84 (p10=15.0%, p90=31.6%) -- width comfortably above parameter floor, consistent with .
- branch-france-odds-too-high: priced -- structural gap -16.38pp (model 17.5% vs market 33.9%), outside model p90 of 22.9%. France partial premium DeltaDist(0.10,0.05) in this scenario. Thuram+Tchouameni absence -0.88pp (above 0.298pp floor, R16-only, expires 2026-07-04).