Forecast @ 3 July 06:31 ET (Round of 32)

31m 1s runtime · $3.67

France lead the field at 24.5% as R16 kicks off, well below the bookmaker consensus: our ratings alone give France 17.3% and only a partial squad premium bridges part of the gap. England face Mexico with Rice confirmed fit and sit at 7.4%, consistent with both ratings and the de-vigged market. Spain are pulled down by the confirmed absence of Williams and Pino. Argentina are a stable second favourite at 17.4%.

% win WC

France0.0%
Argentina0.0%
Spain0.0%
Portugal0.0%
Brazil0.0%
England0.0%
Colombia0.0%
Belgium0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 8.1%Market 6.4%+1.7pp above
Paqueta was forced off at half-time against Japan and is a doubt for the July 5 Norway fixture. The absence discount pulls Brazil from 11.9% in the pure-ratings world to 6.7% in the market-informed world, mixing to 8.1%. Norway as opponents adds moderate upset potential.
Our forecast 13.2%Market 12.6%+0.6pp above
Williams and Pino are both confirmed out for at least the R16 against Portugal on July 6, materially narrowing Spain's attacking options. Our ratings had Spain at 18.7% with a full squad, but the confirmed absence discount pulls them to 13.2%. Recovery for the quarterfinal remains uncertain.
Our forecast 24.5%Market 32.9%-8.4pp below
Our ratings alone give France 17.3% against the bookmakers' implied 33%. A partial squad premium reflects France's EUR1300M club-quality roster advantage not yet captured in rated international results, but the full market delta would require believing the ratings fundamentally mis-rate France. Marcus Thuram missing training 24 hours before Paraguay introduces minor squad depth risk, absorbed within the premium rather than warranting a separate penalty.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

28%International-results ratings (pure model)
72%De-vigged market with confirmed absences and France partial premium

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

France lead the title market at 24.5%, well below the bookmaker consensus of around one-in-three.

24.5% is the weighted average of France’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our ratings alone give France 17.3% against the bookmakers' implied 33%. A partial squad premium reflects France's EUR1300M club-quality roster advantage not yet captured in rated international results, but the full market delta would require believing the ratings fundamentally mis-rate France. Marcus Thuram missing training 24 hours before Paraguay introduces minor squad depth risk, absorbed within the premium rather than warranting a separate penalty.

De-vigged market with confirmed absences and France partial premiumBookmaker consensus after margin removal, with France partial squad premium, Spain and Brazil confirmed-absence discounts, and Argentina small reconciliation. England unearned delta removed.

72%

International-results ratings (pure model)Fitted ratings from international match history, no market or availability adjustment.

28%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
France audit confirms a structural 15.7pp model-vs-market gap that is outside the model's own p90 (21.1%). A partial squad premium of delta=DeltaDist(0.10-0.15, 0.05) is defensible (+6.9 to +10.5pp, reaching ~24.7-28.2%), but the full implied delta of 0.219 requires believing the model fundamentally…
- MODEL BASELINE (50k sims, seed=42): Spain 18.26%, France 17.31%, Argentina 16.30%, Brazil 12.05%, Portugal 8.11%, England 7.05%, Colombia 4.95%, Belgium 4.64%, Morocco 3.41%, Norway 2.43%. Noise floor = 0.336pp.
- FRANCE GAP AUDIT: Model 17.31% vs market 33.01% = -15.70pp gap (largest; widened from -9pp last run as baseline fell -7.3pp). Model uncertainty band p10=11.9%, p90=21.1% -- market 33% is structurally outside the model's own parameter range. Full implied delta = +0.219 strength units.
- WHY MARKET COULD BE RIGHT (France): Squad EUR1300M rank-1 globally -- international-results ratings underweight club-player quality not yet crystallised into weighted wins. Paraguay R16 path is favourable with Alderete ruled out. Thuram calf doubt described as manageable so no meaningful absence dis…
- WHY MODEL COULD BE RIGHT (France): International-results ratings already incorporate 2025 Nations League wins vs Germany, Italy, Belgium and WC qualifying; recency discounting is explicit. Strongest downward pulls include back-to-back Iceland draws, a June 2026 loss to Ivory Coast, and 0-1 to Tunisi…
- FRANCE DEFENSIBLE STANCE: delta=DeltaDist(mean=0.12, sd=0.05). Partial impact at 0.10 mean = +6.93pp (France to ~24.2%). Extended at 0.15 mean = +10.52pp (France to ~28.2%). Recommended 0.12 mean reaches ~26pp -- still 7pp below market, reflecting honest uncertainty about squad premium not yet visib…
2Step 2
Registered (this scenario 0.28, this scenario 0.72). England mixture title probability: 7.7% (prior: 8.8%). The england_r16_disadvantage world is collapsed: its weighted contribution was -0.16pp below the 0.336pp noise floor (), and Rice is confirmed expected fit (), removing…
- Mixture artifact: (this scenario 0.28, this scenario 0.72). Noise floor: 0.19pp (mixture-integrated).
- England: 7.7% mixture title probability (this scenario 7.1%, this scenario 8.0%). Prior published 8.8%; fall driven by collapse of england_r16_disadvantage world.
- england_r16_disadvantage COLLAPSED: weighted contribution -0.16pp at w=0.15 is below the 0.336pp noise floor per ; Rice confirmed expected fit with no structural injury (, ). Altitude effect real but sub-floor at any plausible world weight.
- France reconciled gap: model 17.3% vs market 33.0% is 15.6pp, outside model p90 (21.1%). WHY MARKET RIGHT: EUR1300M squad rank-1, club-quality not visible in international ratings, Paraguay R16 path favourable, Alderete ruled out. WHY MODEL RIGHT: 2025 Nations League wins vs Germany/Italy/Belgium al…
- France: mixture 24.7% (model 17.3%, market 33.0%). market_justification: partial squad premium only; full delta 0.219 not warranted without believing fundamental model misrating.
3Step 3
Corrected mixture registered as artifact . The two material changes from : (1) England delta +0.024 removed -- the -0.67pp market gap is within the 0.336pp noise floor, bookmaker/Polymarket 0.44pp disagreement is sub-floor microstructure, and no specific Rice-fitness uplift mec…
- Corrected : this scenario (w=0.28) + this scenario (w=0.72). Noise floor 0.19pp.
- France: mixture 24.82% (this scenario 17.3%, this scenario 27.7%). DeltaDist(0.12,0.05) is the correct earned specification. The 27.7% this scenario conditional reflects honest DeltaDist integration -- draws above mean=0.12 with sd=0.05 are expected and are not evidence of applying the unwarranted full del…
- England: mixture 7.18% (this scenario 7.11%, this scenario 7.06%). Corrected down from 's 7.7% by removing the unearned +0.024 delta. The -0.67pp model-vs-market gap is within the 0.336pp floor. The bookmaker/Polymarket 0.44pp legs disagree is sub-floor microstructure. No specific mechanism (R…
- france_squad_premium_full_delta: collapsed. DeltaDist(0.12,0.05) in this scenario is the correct specification per . The full delta=0.219 requires believing the model fundamentally mis-rates France; the partial premium captures the EUR1300M squad quality not crystallised in rated internationa…
- england_r16_disadvantage_collapse_unwound: collapsed. Rice confirmed fit (, ) removes the primary mechanism. The altitude penalty of -1.06pp clears the absolute noise floor but requires a world weight above 0.317 to clear the weighted contribution floor of 0.336pp. No plausible world…